Willow Plan · Conroe, TX 77378

$269,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

The stylish Willow home offers a fresh take on modern living with its thoughtfully designed two-story layout. With its 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this floor plan is ideal for growing families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a spacious and cozy new space. With its inviting design and open concept living areas, the Willow plan blends comfort and functionality in a way that feels effortlessly livable. Walking into the home through the front porch, you're instantly greeted by the foyer that leads straight into the large family room and front-facing two-car garage. If you and your family need a larger space for extra storage or another vehicle, there is an option to add a half-car garage.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Front porch
• Natural light

Tags

• TWO STORY LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREAS
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN TO BELOW LIVING ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990; New construction plan inventory

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Willow); Located in Willis, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,412

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full baths and 1 half bath
• Interior features: Plan home (Willow)

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,079.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,446 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,079
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 Starfly Dr	0.14mi	5/3.0	2,531 (+5%)	8mo	$287,050	$113	77
10711 Sora Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-8%)	1mo	$280,200	$126	74
407 Starfly Dr	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,531 (+5%)	13mo	$317,950	$126	73
950 Oak Glen Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,378 (-1%)	1mo	$263,000	$111	66
247 Pine Cavern Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,312 (-4%)	6mo	$259,900	$112	64
10918 Flycatcher Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-8%)	14mo	$274,809	$124	61
443 Starfly Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-8%)	13mo	$314,330	$142	59
996 Oak Glen Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,499 (+4%)	7mo	$235,000	$94	57
10795 Sora Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-9%)	14mo	$293,275	$133	55
141 Shadow Leaf Trl	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,576 (+7%)	13mo	$299,000	$116	50
301 Maple Bark Trl	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,081 (-14%)	4mo	$249,900	$120	43
157 Wasatch Peaks Way	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,246 (-7%)	9mo	$355,990	$158	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-54,979
• Equity at exit: $41,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-72,990
• Equity at exit: $23,957

Cash invested: $77,582 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,156/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $264,576

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,270
• Closing costs: $8,312
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
974 Oak Falls Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,210	$0.88	43d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    listed $269,990 Active 1500-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,521
• − Property taxes: −$4,156
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − Depreciation: −$8,060
• Taxable loss: −$5,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Willow plan by CastleRock Communities is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B