2645 Draper St SE · Warren, OH 44484

$82,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1924 7,405 sqft lot Est $98k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find a surprising amount of living space in this potential packed, four-bedroom Warren home! Set on a scenic lot with tall trees casting plenty of natural shade, the residence waits with its covered front patio to welcome you inside. A split cement driveway runs alongside to find a detached single car garage. Meanwhile, a powered chair lift offers easy mobility access to the raised rear porch. Inside, a carpeted living room is first through the door, inviting with its open layout. A guest bedroom branches away nearby with wood panel wall treatment. The central dining room enjoys large windows and plenty of sunshine that spills across the hardwood styled flooring. Nearby, the ample kitchen brings warm wood cabinets and stainless trimmed appliances. Completing the floor, a second bedroom awaits near a short hall leading to a full bath with a low entry shower. Upstairs, a pair of additional bedrooms each flank a central common area set just off the landing. Call today for more!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open workspace
• Powered chair lift

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• POWERED CHAIR LIFT
• MATURE TREES
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• OPEN WORKSPACE
• WALK IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Asphalt roof; Aluminum siding; Block foundation
• Construction: Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible entrance; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 6.0% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.59%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,632
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2678 Draper Ave SE	0.04mi	2/1.0	912 (+6%)	2mo	$79,000	$87	87
2645 Draper Ave SE	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	22mo	$64,500	$75	76
2842 Fairview Ave SE	0.21mi	2/1.0	762 (-12%)	15mo	$15,000	$20	58
2907 Hilda Dr SE	0.57mi	2/1.0	936 (+8%)	21mo	$125,000	$134	42
3016 Hilda Dr SE	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+8%)	21mo	$130,000	$139	38
1368 Edgehill Ave SE	0.72mi	2/1.0	943 (+9%)	20mo	$107,000	$113	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,291
• Equity at exit: $12,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $24,353
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,239 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44484

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $645

Max offer price $82,995

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $287	+0% $263	+5% $240	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $225	+0% $263	+5% $302	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $284	base $263	+0.5pp $242	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,749
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2232 Youngstown Rd SE Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	14d	1	0.83mi
840 Woodbine Ave SE Unit 838 Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	1009	$1,000	$0.99	14d	1	1.10mi
2661 South St SE Unit J Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	670	$800	$1.19	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,995 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,995 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,995 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,995 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,995 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,995 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,995 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,995 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,995 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,995 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,995 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $82,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 84.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$2,414
• Taxable income: $1,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,634
• Household income: $65,435
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6.7

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.24%
• Current HPI: 217.6603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+336.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $82,995 MLSNOW
• 2024-08-19 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-08-13 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MLSNOW
• 2024-08-05 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2024-06-12 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-05-23 Listed $74,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+701.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $481 · +6330.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.