15969 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$279,540

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,036 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,851 sqft lot $137/sqft · 9% below area Est $308k · 9% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

Key facts

• Soft-close cabinetry
• Granite countertops
• Foyer entryway

Tags

• FOYER ENTRYWAY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• GUEST SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $271,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.82%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,153
• List price: $279,540
• Delta: -9.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15969 Blass Valley Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,036 (0%)	0mo	$279,540	$137	100
15187 Wild Gully Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,028 (-0%)	2mo	$355,880	$175	95
15973 Blass Valley Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+9%)	2mo	$320,370	$144	82
15985 Blass Valley Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-9%)	1mo	$287,320	$155	82
15385 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-5%)	1mo	$294,910	$152	82
15018 English Rose Rd	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-9%)	2mo	$276,730	$150	81
15019 Rustic Moon Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-6%)	1mo	$314,860	$164	73
14973 Rustic Moon Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-6%)	2mo	$289,648	$151	70
16189 Sepia Manor St	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,318 (+14%)	1mo	$349,355	$151	70
15980 Blass Valley Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-13%)	2mo	$274,790	$155	69
16310 Vivid Creek Ct	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,285 (+12%)	1mo	$315,000	$138	66
15027 Rustic Moon Rd	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,285 (+12%)	1mo	$314,370	$138	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-32,655
• Equity at exit: $41,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-9,513
• Equity at exit: $24,170

Cash invested: $78,271 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,193/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,547

Max offer price $279,540

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,885
• Closing costs: $8,386
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	43d	1	0.09mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	0.49mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

2. 2026-05-06
   price $279,540 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

3. 2026-05-04
   price $289,810 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

4. 2026-04-29
   price $289,910 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

5. 2026-04-25
   price $295,540 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

6. 2026-03-12
   listed $306,550 Active 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Ready for move-in! Lincoln floor plan by Centex Homes offers a harmonious blend of functionality and comfort. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. A breakfast bar kitchen with granite countertops and an abundance of soft-close cabinetry will inspire culinary creativity, whether hosting a dinner party or preparing a casual meal. Guest suite on the first level with a full bath. Private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The owners' suite offers a walk-in shower, with a Spacious walk-in closet that provides an abundance of storage. Two secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. Upstairs, an oversized game room is ideal for hosting a game or movie night!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,659
• − Property taxes: −$4,193
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,132
• Taxable loss: −$2,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $2,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and increase rental income.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and increase rental income. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $279,540 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $289,810 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $289,910 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $295,540 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $306,550 HARMLS