Is Camellia Plan in Godley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.5% cap rate and $-191/mo modeled cash flow at a $304,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Camellia Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,442/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 37.96

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.9/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
1% rule +3.0/10.0
DSCR +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$304,990

Camellia Plan · Godley, TX 76044

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 730 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Elements Series Camellia floor plan is a single-story home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Features of this plan include a large family room, open dining and kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, and a bedroom suite with a walk-in closet. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

Large family room
2 garage spots
Listed 729 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (8.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (19.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $244k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
Market conditions: 649 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 730 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,183 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 730 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.80% ✗
Cap rate: 5.54%
Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
DSCR: 0.88
GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $306,819
List price: $304,990
Delta: -0.60%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
568 Highview Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,713 (+2%)	2mo	$360,000	$210	79
1156 Goldenrod Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+2%)	6mo	$235,000	$137	76
1027 Stockton Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+11%)	2mo	$315,000	$169	74
933 Creekhollow Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	2mo	$320,000	$191	72
592 Highview Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,843 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$195	67
432 Avian Way	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (+7%)	3mo	$299,990	$167	66
1160 Country Glen Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	0mo	$324,900	$176	66
517 Highview Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+8%)	3mo	$335,000	$186	64
200 High Ridge Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+5%)	8mo	$369,000	$209	64
1261 Grand Meadows Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+10%)	1mo	$346,000	$188	57
517 Mckittrick Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+5%)	7mo	$369,000	$210	56
525 Mckittrick Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+8%)	5mo	$359,500	$199	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -20.7%
Equity multiple: 0.28×
Total profit: $-61,866
Equity at exit: $45,748

10-year hold

IRR: -14.0%
Equity multiple: 0.19×
Total profit: $-69,412
Equity at exit: $26,528

Cash invested: $85,909 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 40 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $318,760 ($175/sqft)
Median days on market: 114 d
This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

Home prices YoY: -12.4%
Active inventory: 649
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,442 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,609
Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,602/yr
Insurance: −$128
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,684

Max offer price $279,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-85	+0% $-191	+5% $-297	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-288	+0% $-191	+5% $-95	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-113	base $-191	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $76,705
Closing costs: $9,205
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	60d	1	0.36mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	66d	1	0.36mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	59d	1	0.40mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	93d	1	0.53mi
9500 County Road 1001 Godley, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,050	$1.93	0d	15	1.08mi
620 E Godley Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,295	$1.34	0d	1	1.16mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	93d	1	1.17mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,270	$1.12	0d	1	1.32mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,495	$1.18	23d	1	1.34mi
8213 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,300	$1.24	73d	1	1.37mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,350	$1.35	0d	1	1.38mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	39d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $304,990 Active 730 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $304,990 Active 728 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $304,990 Active 727 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $304,990 Active 726 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $304,990 Active 725 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $304,990 Active 722 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $304,990 Active 721 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $304,990 Active 720 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $304,990 Active 719 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $304,990 Active 717 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $304,990 Active 715 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $304,990 Active 714 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $304,990 Active 713 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $304,990 Active 712 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $304,990 Active 711 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $304,990 Active 709 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $304,990 Active 708 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $304,990 Active 707 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $304,990 Active 706 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $304,990 Active 705 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $304,990 Active 704 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $304,990 Active 703 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $304,990 Active 702 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $304,990 Active 701 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $304,990 Active 700 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $304,990 Active 698 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $304,990 Active 697 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $304,990 Active 696 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $304,990 Active 695 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $304,990 Active 694 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $304,990 Active 693 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $304,990 Active 692 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $304,990 Active 691 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $304,990 Active 690 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $304,990 Active 689 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $304,990 Active 688 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $304,990 Active 687 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $304,990 Active 685 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $304,990 Active 683 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $304,990 Active 682 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $304,990 Active 679 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $304,990 Active 678 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $304,990 Active 677 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $304,990 Active 676 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $304,990 Active 674 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $304,990 Active 673 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $304,990 Active 670 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $304,990 Active 669 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $304,990 Active 668 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $304,990 Active 665 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,302
− Mortgage interest: −$17,187
− Property taxes: −$4,602
− Insurance: −$1,534
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
− Management: −$2,344
− Depreciation: −$8,926
Taxable loss: −$7,635

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
After-tax cash flow: $-463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Godley, TX, is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior stone siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Godley ISD
NCES district ID: 4820960
Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income: $59,332
Composite: 32.06/100
National rank: #5820
State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

Score: 73/100
State rank: #226
US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Godley, TX
County: Johnson · 179,678 people
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 8,759
Household income: $103,795
Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 179,678 people
By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
Current HPI: 259.1029
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2024-08-08 Listed $304,990 Zillow
2024-04-11 Relisted — Zillow
2024-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
2024-03-08 Listed $304,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…