Palmary Plan · Aurora, IL 60503

$486,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $486,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $651,587.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $487k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.5% in Aurora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolfs Crossing Elem School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 2,056 statewide, top 18%, 485 students, 0% FRL); Bednarcik Junior High School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #154 of 665 statewide, top 24%, 571 students, 0% FRL); Oswego East High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #104 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 2,836 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,057 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.48%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 20.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $651,587
• List price: $486,990
• Delta: -25.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3150 Adelwood Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,841 (-3%)	2mo	$680,955	$370	72
3120 Adelwood Cir	0.48mi	2/2.5	2,026 (+7%)	4mo	$604,240	$298	60
3268 Oak Creek Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,841 (-3%)	8mo	$556,461	$302	58
3256 Oak Creek Ln	0.59mi	2/2.5	2,026 (+7%)	2mo	$579,058	$286	56
3295 Oak Creek Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,892 (0%)	13mo	$548,941	$290	54
3293 Oak Creek Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,841 (-3%)	12mo	$544,585	$296	50
3288 Oak Creek Ln	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,841 (-3%)	15mo	$535,792	$291	49
3282 Oak Creek Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,841 (-3%)	18mo	$539,470	$293	47
3262 Oak Creek Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (-13%)	0mo	$475,000	$289	44
3275 Oak Creek Ln	0.73mi	2/2.5	2,027 (+7%)	12mo	$578,041	$285	42
3276 Lincoln Prairie Blvd	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,743 (-8%)	16mo	$522,851	$300	41
3280 Oak Creek Ln	0.72mi	2/2.5	2,027 (+7%)	16mo	$567,328	$280	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $205,003
• Equity at exit: $587,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $721,669
• Equity at exit: $1,265,891

Cash invested: $182,444 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60503

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,721 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$814 /mo · $9,774/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-2,354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,700

Max offer price $311,000

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,903	-5% $-2,129	+0% $-2,354	+5% $-2,579	+10% $-2,804
Rent	-10% $-2,569	-5% $-2,461	+0% $-2,354	+5% $-2,246	+10% $-2,139
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,026	-0.5pp $-2,188	base $-2,354	+0.5pp $-2,523	+1.0pp $-2,694

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,897
• Closing costs: $19,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
246 Cooney Way Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,800	$1.58	45d	1	0.61mi
464 Valentine Way Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	2071	$2,800	$1.35	0d	1	0.68mi
2454 Frost Dr Unit 2454 Aurora, IL	2.0	2.5	1230	$2,300	$1.87	45d	1	0.75mi
260 Devoe Dr Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,400	$1.41	14d	1	0.85mi
2873 Carlsbad Cir Aurora, IL	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,990	$1.84	45d	1	0.92mi
421 Hathaway Ln Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	2074	$3,850	$1.86	45d	1	0.95mi
337 Devoe Dr #337 Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	26d	1	1.04mi
347 Devoe Dr Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,595	$1.71	14d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $486,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $486,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $486,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $486,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $486,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $486,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $486,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $486,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $486,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $486,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $485,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $485,990 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,990 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,990 Active 935 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    price $485,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $482,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

17. 2025-11-02
    price $480,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

18. 2025-08-30
    price $479,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

19. 2025-03-08
    price $475,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

20. 2025-02-02
    price $474,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

21. 2025-01-08
    price $472,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

22. 2025-01-04
    price $470,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

23. 2024-10-03
    price $465,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

24. 2024-06-02
    price $464,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

25. 2024-05-04
    price $463,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

26. 2024-01-04
    price $462,990 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

27. 2023-11-08
    listed $461,990 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    The Palmary offers an elegant foyer that leads you to the open living spaces of this new home. A spacious center island allows for formal entertaining or casual dining and the large pantry offers the kitchen storage you desire. The covered patio extends along the back of house for additional entertaining space. Add a second-floor loft, bedroom, and bath for out-of-town guests or grandkids.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,499
• − Property taxes: −$9,774
• − Insurance: −$3,258
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,612
• − Management: −$2,612
• − Depreciation: −$18,955
• Taxable loss: −$41,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: CUSD 308
• NCES district ID: 1730270
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $89,945
• Composite: 31.25/100
• National rank: #6028
• State rank: #179 of 620 in IL

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #4272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, IL
• County: Will County · 412,448 people
• City population: 186,692
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 16,789
• Household income: $136,726
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 19.0

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 19% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scandinavian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.31%
• Current HPI: 232.382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $485,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $482,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $480,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $479,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $475,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $474,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $472,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $470,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $464,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $463,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $462,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $461,990 Zillow