451 Paul Ave · Lake Wilson, MN 56151

$198,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 1915 0.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this one-of-a-kind gem featuring breathtaking original woodwork and all the "big" updates already done. This home perfectly balances historic soul with modern peace of mind. The Highlights: Main Floor Living: A convenient main-floor bedroom sits alongside an expansive living room and formal dining area—perfect for hosting. Spacious Upstairs: Four additional bedrooms feature raised ceilings and a second full bath, offering plenty of room for family or a home office. The Crown Jewel: Step outside to the largest yard in town! This massive outdoor oasis is a rare find and provides endless possibilities for gardening, play, or entertaining. Don't miss out on this unique

Key facts

• 0.76 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1915

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a fractional ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage (dimensions approx. 26 x 30)
• Utilities: City water connected and well; City sewer connected; Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Main floor primary bedroom; Above-grade finished area reported (2,440 sq ft); Below-grade area noted
• Construction: Combination block and frame construction; Block and poured concrete foundation; Roof age 8 years or less; Foundation area and dimensions noted
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Vinyl siding; Barn(s) on the property; Lot approximately 0.765 acres (245 x 155 irregular); City street frontage with public road maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Main level: one bedroom (primary) and one additional bedroom; Upper level: four bedrooms (listed as Bedrooms 2–5)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on main floor, one on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Living/dining room configuration; Main floor primary bedroom; Walk-in closet; 4 bedrooms on one level; Main floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-443/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#618 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Murray County Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #28 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Murray Co. Central Elementary (math 76% / reading 57%, grade B+, #113 of 857 statewide, top 14%, 386 students, 43% FRL); Murray County Central Secondary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 335 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Murray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Murray County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,229 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,421
• Equity at exit: $89,029

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $79,469
• Equity at exit: $137,205

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56151

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $191,483

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $19	+0% $-37	+5% $-93	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-95	+0% $-37	+5% $21	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $13	base $-37	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $198,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $198,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $198,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $198,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $198,000 Active 759-char remark
20. 2026-05-06
    historical $198,000 759-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,413
• − Management: −$1,413
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$3,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murray County Central School District
• NCES district ID: 2700090
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,848
• Composite: 54.52/100
• National rank: #1344
• State rank: #28 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Wilson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #14689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Wilson, MN
• Population (ZIP): 681

Population outlook (Murray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,978 people
• By 2030: 7,715 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 7,213 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 6,820 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 6,371 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 5,729 · -28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 25% Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Murray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 27.9% · R 70.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.5pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $198,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $198,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $950 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.