4544 US Hwy 79 · Carthage, TX 75639

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special or Dream Home Project! This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is ready for someone with a vision! Located just 13 minutes from Carthage and 35 minutes from Shreveport, it offers a fantastic opportunity to create something truly special. With a spacious backyard and endless potential, this property is priced to sell and perfect for anyone who doesn’t mind putting in some work.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1979

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No pool; No other structures

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Carthage ISD (town): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #364 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.37%
• DSCR: 4.58
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $65,632
• Equity at exit: $22,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.75×
• Total profit: $150,163
• Equity at exit: $34,578

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75639

• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $970	-5% $953	+0% $936	+5% $918	+10% $901
Rent	-10% $808	-5% $872	+0% $936	+5% $1,000	+10% $1,064
Rate	-1.0pp $961	-0.5pp $948	base $936	+0.5pp $923	+1.0pp $910

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $49,900 Active 394-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $11,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,663
• After-tax cash flow: $8,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a major roof replacement and exterior siding repair. Landscaping and lawn maintenance are also needed to improve curb appeal and property value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage with missing shingles
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and unkempt lawn

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace roof — Critical safety and structural issue
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both landscaping and lawn maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage with missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and unkempt lawn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace roof — Critical safety and structural issue ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both landscaping and lawn maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4997
• State rank: #364 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,698

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $49,900 LAAR