3500 SE Concord Rd · Oak Grove, OR 97267

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land · 761 Days on market

Built 2024 $139/sqft · 87% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2024 Fleetwood Home 2 Bedrooms plus Den 2 Bathrooms Spacious Layout - Approximately 1,152 Square Feet, 27' x 48' Laminate Wood Flooring with Carpet in Bedrooms New Refrigerator, Stove & Dishwasher Included

Key facts

• Spacious layout
• Built 2024
• Listed 760 days

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• NEW REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.7% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#37 in OR, #832 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 761 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 761 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.90%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,700
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 86.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,660
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,395
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97267

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $387	+0% $332	+5% $277	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $260	+0% $332	+5% $404	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $373	base $332	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3624 SE Westview Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,950	$1.85	15d	2	0.08mi
3412 SE Vineyard Rd Unit 1 Milwaukie, OR	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	18d	1	0.26mi
15500 SE East Ave Unit 15530 Oak Grove, OR	2.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	23d	1	0.35mi
15318 SE Risley Ct Milwaukie, OR	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,395	$2.18	13d	1	0.36mi
4400 SE Naef Rd Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,620	$1.88	8d	9	0.55mi
4400 SE Naef Rd Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	717	$1,350	$1.88	25d	1	0.55mi
4400 SE Naef Rd Apt B22 Milwaukie, OR	1.0	1.0	717	$1,385	$1.93	25d	1	0.56mi
4400 SE Naef Rd Unit F30 Milwaukie, OR	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,620	$1.60	25d	1	0.56mi
15607 SE Meadowlark Ln Portland, OR	3.0	2.5	1336	$2,695	$2.02	23d	1	0.58mi
4545 SE Ina Ave Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	2d	1	0.86mi
3025 SE Maple St Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	21d	1	0.87mi
3025 SE Maple St Unit 4 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	8d	1	0.87mi
15303 SE Lee Ave Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	1398	$2,795	$2.00	44d	1	0.87mi
4713 SE Ina Ave Portland, OR	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,395	$1.84	8d	1	0.89mi
4520 SE Ina Ave Apt 6 Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	775	$1,399	$1.81	44d	1	0.91mi
4807 SE Boardman Ave Unit 2 Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	986	$1,895	$1.92	44d	1	0.97mi
4803 SE Boardman Ave Unit 0702 Milwaukie, OR	3.0	1.0	986	$1,895	$1.92	25d	1	1.00mi
4803 SE Boardman Ave Milwaukie, OR	3.0	1.0	986	$1,895	$1.92	44d	1	1.00mi
4800 SE Boardman Ave Apt 6 Milwaukie, OR	2.0	1.0	830	$1,595	$1.92	5d	1	1.03mi
3190 Furman Dr Lake Oswego, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	648	$1,554	$2.40	44d	1	1.04mi
14832 SE Cedar Ave Unit 3 Milwaukie, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	13d	1	1.07mi
13822 SE Oatfield Rd Unit 3C Milwaukie, OR	3.0	2.5	1385	$2,595	$1.87	18d	1	1.11mi
2600 SE Courtney Ave Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,378	$2.30	25d	3	1.15mi
18101 SE Arista Dr Apt 5 Milwaukie, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	15d	1	1.20mi
17966 SE Addie St Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	44d	1	1.23mi
14020 SE Arista Dr Portland, OR	2.0	1.5	970	$1,900	$1.96	44d	1	1.23mi
2301 SE Courtney Ave Unit 10 Oak Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	962	$1,295	$1.35	25d	1	1.25mi
2295 SE Courtney Ave Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	727	$1,195	$1.64	4d	1	1.27mi
2295 SE Courtney Ave Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	962	$1,295	$1.35	25d	1	1.27mi
2311 SE Courtney Ave Portland, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,795	$1.79	25d	1	1.28mi
13500 SE Linden Ln Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	25d	1	1.36mi
18484 SE Abernethy Ln Portland, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,440	$1.31	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 761 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 758 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 757 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 756 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 755 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 753 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 749 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 748 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 747 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 744 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 743 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 742 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 741 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 740 DOM
15. 2024-05-21
    listed $159,900 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    2024 Fleetwood Home 2 Bedrooms plus Den 2 Bathrooms Spacious Layout - Approximately 1,152 Square Feet, 27' x 48' Laminate Wood Flooring with Carpet in Bedrooms New Refrigerator, Stove & Dishwasher Included

16. 2023-03-24
    soldstatus $120,000
17. 2023-02-10
    listed $120,000
18. 2018-06-15
    status Pending
19. 2018-06-15
    soldstatus $33,000 Sold
20. 2018-03-15
    listed $36,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $3,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #832

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Grove, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,311
• Household income: $87,418
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1226.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -526.38%
• Current HPI: 292.1818
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.81%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+338.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-21 Listed $159,900 Zillow
• 2023-03-24 Sold (MLS) $120,000 RMLS
• 2023-02-10 Listed $120,000 RMLS
• 2018-06-15 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-06-15 Sold (MLS) $33,000 RMLS
• 2018-03-15 Listed $36,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,985 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.