31302 Harp Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$319,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,257 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY. Welcome to The Sterling, a two-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a 2-car garage. Step through the foyer to access the garage, stairway, utility room, and powder bath. The heart of the home is the open-concept kitchen, featuring stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, breakfast bar, ample cabinet space. Flow seamlessly into the dining and family room with two-story ceilings provides ample natural light. The primary suite boasts dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, enjoy a large game room, along with a media room (or optional 5th bedroom). The 3 additional bedrooms feature plush carpet, plenty of closet space, 2 full bathrooms conveniently located outside the bedrooms, providing space and privacy for everyone. Enjoy Tamarron’s resort-style pools, splash pad, fitness centers, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 29 days

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $479,969.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,713 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.16%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $479,969
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -33.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2806 Peach Valley Rd	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,341 (+4%)	0mo	$475,000	$203	81
3051 Liams Tower Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-10%)	0mo	$318,990	$156	78
3302 Hopper Knoll Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,199 (-3%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	71
31930 Rich Meadows Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+2%)	0mo	$429,000	$187	70
3318 Bonnie Heights St	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,199 (-3%)	0mo	$344,990	$157	68
3515 Ashe Landing Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,199 (-3%)	0mo	$349,990	$159	67
31731 Fern Grove Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,317 (+3%)	0mo	$460,000	$199	65
30918 Breezy Way	0.49mi	4/3.5	2,384 (+6%)	1mo	$474,900	$199	65
2855 Orange Leaf Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,442 (+8%)	0mo	$420,000	$172	59
2834 Garden Meadow St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-11%)	0mo	$395,000	$198	52
3507 Blueberry Thistle Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,548 (+13%)	0mo	$359,990	$141	51
3415 Dursley Landing Ct	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,452 (+9%)	0mo	$418,999	$171	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-164,983
• Equity at exit: $71,565

10-year hold

• IRR: -85.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.05×
• Total profit: $-275,612
• Equity at exit: $41,499

Cash invested: $134,391 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 243 active · 191 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $372,990 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1802
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,200/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-1,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,199

Max offer price $299,175

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-918	-5% $-1,084	+0% $-1,249	+5% $-1,415	+10% $-1,581
Rent	-10% $-1,456	-5% $-1,353	+0% $-1,249	+5% $-1,146	+10% $-1,043
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,008	-0.5pp $-1,127	base $-1,249	+0.5pp $-1,374	+1.0pp $-1,500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,992
• Closing costs: $14,399
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	18d	1	0.12mi
3206 Langley Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,300	$1.01	38d	1	0.57mi
2826 Torrey Pines Dr Unit DO Pattison, TX	4.0	2.5	2657	$2,071	$0.78	101d	1	0.57mi
3702 Birtley Bend Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2688	$3,499	$1.30	37d	1	0.88mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	139d	1	0.90mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,330	$1.36	0d	8	0.94mi
2126 Great Egret Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,170	$1.27	2d	1	1.28mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	108d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Other

• Other: 8 total roomsRadiant attic barrier, insulation, and efficient lighting included as energy-efficient featuresMunicipal Utility District disclosure

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (builder: D.R. Horton)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding constructionBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16x10)First-floor bedroom (approx. 10x12)Second-floor bedroom (approx. 12x10)Second-floor bedroom (approx. 10x11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-09-04
   days on marketlisting id $319,990 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-09-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-09-02
   days on market $319,990 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-08-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-08-29
   days on market $319,990 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-08-28
   pricedays on market $319,990 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-08-27
   days on market $338,990 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-08-26
   days on market $338,990 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-08-25
    days on market $338,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-08-24
    days on market $338,990 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-08-23
    days on market $338,990 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-08-22
    days on market $338,990 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-08-21
    statusdays on market $338,990 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-08-20
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
16. 2026-08-19
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
17. 2026-08-18
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
18. 2026-08-17
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
19. 2026-08-16
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
20. 2026-08-15
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
21. 2026-08-14
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
22. 2026-08-13
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
23. 2026-08-12
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
24. 2026-08-11
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
25. 2026-08-10
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
26. 2026-08-09
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
27. 2026-08-08
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 44 DOM
28. 2026-08-06
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
29. 2026-08-05
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
30. 2026-08-04
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
31. 2026-08-03
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
32. 2026-07-31
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
33. 2026-07-30
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
34. 2026-07-28
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
35. 2026-07-26
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
36. 2026-07-24
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
37. 2026-07-23
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
38. 2026-07-22
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
39. 2026-07-21
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
40. 2026-07-20
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
41. 2026-07-18
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
42. 2026-07-18
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
43. 2026-07-16
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
44. 2026-07-15
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
45. 2026-07-14
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
46. 2026-07-13
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
47. 2026-07-13
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
48. 2026-07-11
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
49. 2026-07-10
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
50. 2026-07-09
    days on market $338,990 Active Under Contract 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,886
• − Property taxes: −$7,200
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,512
• − Management: −$2,512
• − Depreciation: −$13,963
• Taxable loss: −$24,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,776
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,285–$33,855 screening

This move-in-ready home offers a good condition with a fresh exterior paint job and trim landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Other

• Other: 8 total roomsRadiant attic barrier, insulation, and efficient lighting included as energy-efficient featuresMunicipal Utility District disclosure

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: HOA managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (builder: D.R. Horton)Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding constructionBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16x10)First-floor bedroom (approx. 10x12)Second-floor bedroom (approx. 12x10)Second-floor bedroom (approx. 10x11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-06 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-06-25 Listed $338,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $401,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $399,990 HARMLS