111 Lantern Rd · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$272,875

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 706 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $166/sqft · 13% below area Est $314k · 13% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Island kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 706 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $208,180 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 706 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,966
• List price: $272,875
• Delta: -13.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Flintlock Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	7mo	$287,490	$166	82
211 Bobcat Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	7mo	$294,030	$169	78
412 Tia Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	12mo	$299,430	$173	76
501 Carthage St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,831 (+11%)	1mo	$288,490	$158	69
413 Range Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	8mo	$331,490	$181	65
215 Bobcat Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	8mo	$298,990	$163	64
300 Tia Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	12mo	$283,000	$155	62
211 Buckboard Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	8mo	$299,650	$164	62
177 Longhorn Pass	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	12mo	$265,000	$153	59
412 Bailey Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+10%)	12mo	$300,000	$165	58
108 Condor Pass	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+11%)	7mo	$267,999	$146	57
3330 Fm 36 S	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (-6%)	8mo	$339,900	$219	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-67,371
• Equity at exit: $40,687

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-88,005
• Equity at exit: $23,593

Cash invested: $76,405 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 37.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,306/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,671

Max offer price $208,180

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-289	+0% $-366	+5% $-443	+10% $-521
Rent	-10% $-541	-5% $-453	+0% $-366	+5% $-279	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-297	base $-366	+0.5pp $-437	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,219
• Closing costs: $8,186
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	142d	1	0.14mi
116 Kiskadee Trl Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$1,995	$0.99	124d	1	0.22mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,350	$1.17	102d	1	0.23mi
108 Timber Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,095	$1.15	6d	1	0.24mi
151 Coyote Trl Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,350	$1.35	63d	1	0.37mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	153d	1	0.41mi
152 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	96d	1	0.46mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	123d	1	0.51mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2010	$1,950	$0.97	109d	1	0.51mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	146d	1	0.52mi
176 Mockingbird Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$1,995	$0.98	93d	1	0.54mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	184d	1	0.55mi
125 Smarty Jones St Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,100	$1.24	10d	1	1.36mi
157 Silver Charm Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,200	$1.05	65d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $40/mo · $480/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $272,875 Active 706 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $272,875 Active 705 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $272,875 Active 704 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $272,875 Active 703 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $272,875 Active 702 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $272,875 Active 700 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $272,875 Active 699 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $272,875 Active 698 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $272,875 Active 697 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $272,875 Active 696 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $272,875 Active 695 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $272,875 Active 694 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $272,875 Active 693 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $272,875 Active 692 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $272,875 Active 691 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $272,875 Active 690 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $272,875 Active 689 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $272,875 Active 688 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $272,875 Active 687 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $272,875 Active 686 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $272,875 Active 685 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $272,875 Active 684 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $272,875 Active 683 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $272,875 Active 682 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $272,875 Active 681 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $272,875 Active 680 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $272,875 Active 679 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $272,875 Active 678 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $272,875 Active 677 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $272,875 Active 676 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $272,875 Active 675 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $272,875 Active 674 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $272,875 Active 673 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $272,875 Active 672 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $272,875 Active 671 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $272,875 Active 670 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $272,875 Active 669 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $272,875 Active 668 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $272,875 Active 667 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $272,875 Active 666 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $272,875 Active 665 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $272,875 Active 664 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $272,875 Active 663 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    price $272,875 Active 662 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $322,875 Active 662 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $322,875 Active 661 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $322,875 Active 660 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $322,875 Active 659 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    pricedays on market $322,875 Active 658 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $268,990 Active 657 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,306 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,306 · $525/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,285
• − Property taxes: −$6,306
• − Insurance: −$1,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,938
• Taxable loss: −$9,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,189
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,235–$24,705 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates are painting the exterior and landscaping to enhance curb appeal and attract tenants.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental landscape — attracts tenants with well-maintained surroundings ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Frances And Jeannette Lee El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $269,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $268,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $278,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $283,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $282,990 NTREIS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $283,990 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $278,990 NTREIS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $276,990 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $281,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $274,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $248,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $248,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $282,990 NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $280,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $280,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $280,990 NTREIS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $281,990 NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $282,990 NTREIS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $285,990 NTREIS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $289,990 NTREIS
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $292,990 NTREIS
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $292,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $296,990 NTREIS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $294,990 NTREIS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $394,990 NTREIS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $297,990 NTREIS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $295,990 NTREIS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $298,990 NTREIS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $295,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+424.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,306 · +424.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.