8525 Blue Wave Ln · Ellenton, FL 34219

$421,150

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $539k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence (Raleigh plan); Spec new construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,896

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Raleigh plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $421k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $345,883 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $538,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9428 Bella Mar Trl	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (-5%)	2mo	$425,000	$154	77
9436 Bella Mar Trl	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+14%)	1mo	$473,000	$143	62
9427 Bella Mar Trl	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,313 (+14%)	1mo	$477,000	$144	61
8522 Salmar Loop	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,174 (+10%)	1mo	$825,076	$260	59
7438 Sea Manatee St	0.43mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	0mo	$559,990	$181	57
7470 Sea Manatee St	0.43mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	1mo	$599,990	$194	56
7441 Sea Manatee St	0.43mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,689 (-7%)	3mo	$530,000	$197	54
7490 Sea Manatee St	0.43mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	4mo	$500,000	$161	54
8814 Starry Night Ter	0.69mi	5/4.0	3,018 (+4%)	4mo	$535,000	$177	51
9013 Sandy Shores St	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,699 (-7%)	2mo	$535,000	$198	48
7450 Sea Manatee St	0.74mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	1mo	$574,990	$186	42
7479 Sea Manatee St	0.65mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,269 (+13%)	1mo	$685,000	$210	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-89,665
• Equity at exit: $62,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-131,638
• Equity at exit: $36,413

Cash invested: $117,922 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$526 /mo · $6,317/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,684

Max offer price $395,393

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $-32	+0% $-178	+5% $-324	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-315	+0% $-178	+5% $-41	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-71	base $-178	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,288
• Closing costs: $12,634
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	4d	1	0.11mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	17d	1	0.11mi
8438 Blue Wave Ln Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	24d	1	0.12mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	11d	1	0.15mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.38mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	4d	1	0.98mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	4d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $421,150 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $421,150 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $420,200 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $420,200 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,317
• − Insurance: −$2,106
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,320
• − Management: −$3,320
• − Depreciation: −$12,252
• Taxable loss: −$9,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,256
• After-tax cash flow: $120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern design and ample space. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B