409 Bluebird St · Mora, MN 55051

$237,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2004 7,318 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy convenient single-level living in this spacious twin home featuring a large two-car garage and no interior stairs, making it comfortable and accessible for all stages of life. A unique opportunity — the adjoining twin home is also available for sale, making it ideal for buyers looking to purchase both sides for extended family, rental income, or investment purposes.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004
• Listed 92 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.1% in Mora — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#207 in MN, #4,362 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Mora Public School District (town): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #115 of 301 in MN (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mora Elementary School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 832 students, 49% FRL); Mora Middle Level Alc (math 10% / reading 10%, 15 students, 80% FRL); Mora Secondary (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D-, #186 of 471 statewide, top 39%, 737 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 32% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mora Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Kanabec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Kanabec County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $237k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,500 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $53,582
• Equity at exit: $151,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $170,464
• Equity at exit: $276,197

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55051

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $189,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-200	+0% $-267	+5% $-334	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-407	-5% $-337	+0% $-267	+5% $-197	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-207	base $-267	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Park St S Mora, MN	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,775	$1.32	45d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $237,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $237,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $237,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,000 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $237,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Enjoy convenient single-level living in this spacious twin home featuring a large two-car garage and no interior stairs, making it comfortable and accessible for all stages of life. A unique opportunity — the adjoining twin home is also available for sale, making it ideal for buyers looking to purchase both sides for extended family, rental income, or investment purposes.

19. 2026-03-21
    listed $245,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Enjoy convenient single-level living in this spacious twin home featuring a large two-car garage and no interior stairs, making it comfortable and accessible for all stages of life. A unique opportunity — the adjoining twin home is also available for sale, making it ideal for buyers looking to purchase both sides for extended family, rental income, or investment purposes.

20. 2026-03-20
    historical $245,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Enjoy convenient single-level living in this spacious twin home featuring a large two-car garage and no interior stairs, making it comfortable and accessible for all stages of life. A unique opportunity — the adjoining twin home is also available for sale, making it ideal for buyers looking to purchase both sides for extended family, rental income, or investment purposes.

21. 2008-04-30
    soldstatus $122,500 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    This unique twin home in Mora has much to offer incl beautiful natural lighting, vaulted ceilings, 1-1/2 BA, and finished garage w/opener! All nestled on a quiet street w/ easy access to local businesses and close to the updated Allina Clinic! Thank you!

22. 2008-04-29
    historical 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    This unique twin home in Mora has much to offer incl beautiful natural lighting, vaulted ceilings, 1-1/2 BA, and finished garage w/opener! All nestled on a quiet street w/ easy access to local businesses and close to the updated Allina Clinic! Thank you!

23. 2007-11-23
    listed $138,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    This unique twin home in Mora has much to offer incl beautiful natural lighting, vaulted ceilings, 1-1/2 BA, and finished garage w/opener! All nestled on a quiet street w/ easy access to local businesses and close to the updated Allina Clinic! Thank you!

24. 2007-10-19
    historical
25. 2006-11-30
    listed $131,900
26. 2006-11-29
    historical
27. 2006-07-05
    historical
28. 2006-06-28
    listed $131,900
29. 2006-01-03
    listed $136,900
30. 2005-12-31
    historical
31. 2005-10-21
    historical
32. 2005-10-21
    listed $137,900
33. 2005-04-19
    listed $135,900
34. 2005-04-11
    historical
35. 2005-01-10
    listed $135,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,930 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,930 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$7,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mora Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721480
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 43.26/100
• National rank: #3052
• State rank: #115 of 301 in MN

Livability — Mora

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #4362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mora, MN
• Population (ZIP): 9,927

Population outlook (Kanabec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,998 people
• By 2030: 14,363 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 12,841 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 11,299 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 8,458 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 6,283 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Scottish 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kanabec

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.1% · R 70.4% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+37.9 2016: R+35.7 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.15%
• Current HPI: 313.18
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+74.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $237,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Coming Soon $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-30 Sold (MLS) $122,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-23 Listed $138,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-30 Listed $131,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-28 Listed $131,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-03 Listed $136,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-21 Listed $137,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-19 Listed $135,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-10 Listed $135,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,930 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.