385 Auburn Ave · Buffalo, NY 14213

$229,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1900 2,306 sqft lot Est $244k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

Key facts

• Electric 4 years
• New duct work
• Glass block windows

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• WONDERFUL FRONT PORCH
• NUMEROUS UPDATES
• ELECTRIC 4 YEARS
• NEW DUCT WORK
• GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,266/mo this rent would consume 117% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $229k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.46%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
385 Auburn Ave	0.00mi	6/2.0	1,920 (0%)	0mo	$218,000	$114	100
192 Baynes St	0.17mi	6/2.0	1,920 (0%)	10mo	$284,000	$148	84
325 Breckenridge St	0.20mi	6/2.0	2,044 (+6%)	2mo	$175,500	$86	78
136 Congress St	0.35mi	6/2.0	2,024 (+5%)	14mo	$175,000	$86	64
38 Ardmore Pl	0.25mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (+10%)	6mo	$230,000	$108	61
47 Abbottsford Pl	0.64mi	6/2.0	2,024 (+5%)	11mo	$400,000	$198	52
391 Hoyt St	0.55mi	6/2.0	2,112 (+10%)	8mo	$308,000	$146	50
427 Forest Ave	0.66mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (+8%)	1mo	$262,500	$127	50
234 Dewitt St	0.56mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,120 (+10%)	2mo	$59,000	$28	46
433 Parkdale Ave	0.62mi	6/2.0	2,200 (+15%)	9mo	$280,000	$127	39
149 16th St	0.70mi	6/3.0	2,169 (+13%)	10mo	$394,000	$182	34
254 W Utica St	0.73mi	6/2.0	2,206 (+15%)	15mo	$375,000	$170	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $250,281
• Equity at exit: $166,431

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.81×
• Total profit: $565,064
• Equity at exit: $323,415

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $729/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,106
• Net cashflow: $2,803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,933	-5% $2,868	+0% $2,803	+5% $2,738	+10% $2,673
Rent	-10% $2,387	-5% $2,595	+0% $2,803	+5% $3,011	+10% $3,219
Rate	-1.0pp $2,918	-0.5pp $2,861	base $2,803	+0.5pp $2,744	+1.0pp $2,683

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1.5	$5,265
Total (3 units)			$5,266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   status Active
3. 2025-11-25
   price $229,000
4. 2025-09-25
   price $235,000
5. 2025-08-14
   listed $259,900 Active
6. 2022-01-21
   soldstatus $105,000
7. 2022-01-13
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed Sale or Rented 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

8. 2021-10-26
   status Pending Sale 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

9. 2021-10-13
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

10. 2021-10-07
    price $99,900 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

11. 2021-09-28
    price $145,000 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

12. 2021-09-20
    listed $175,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, with highly sought after location. 3/3 unit with updated upper kitchen with some newer windows. Walking distance shopping. Gross annual income $15,720

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,571/yr (+$131/mo · 215.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$729
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,055
• − Management: −$5,055
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $31,718
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,612
• After-tax cash flow: $26,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $229,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $235,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $259,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-13 Sold (MLS) $105,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-07 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-28 Price Changed $145,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-20 Listed $175,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $729 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.