309 E Roseboro St · Roseboro, NC
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $906 – $1,684
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +9.1/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +3.4/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$49,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Investor opportunity in Roseboro. 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located inside Roseboro city limits on a 0.29-acre lot with town water and sewer. Walking distance to Dowtown Roseboro resturants, shops, park and grocery store. CASH ONLY. Sold as is, where is. Seller makes no representations. Convenient to Ft Bragg, Fayetteville, and Clinton with access to Hwy 24. Make an offer.
Key facts
- Access to hwy 24
- 0.29 acre lot
- Built 1950
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
- Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 7.6% in Roseboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#445 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
- Sampson County Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 178 in NC (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Roseboro Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 387 students, 99% FRL); Roseboro-Salemburg Middle (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #360 of 475 statewide, top 77%, 406 students, 99% FRL); Lakewood High (math 72% / reading 42%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 479 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Sampson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $4k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
- Sampson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.65% ✓
- Cap rate
- 33.62%
- Cash-on-cash
- 97.60%
- DSCR
- 5.34
- GRM
- 2.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $248,162
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300 E Roseboro St | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,558 (+5%) | 1mo | $110,000 | $71 | 84 |
| 303 E Pleasant St | 0.09mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,491 (+0%) | 12mo | $217,000 | $146 | 78 |
| 602 Cypress St | 0.25mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,500 (+1%) | 3mo | $252,000 | $168 | 75 |
| 604 Cypress St | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,523 (+2%) | 1mo | $251,500 | $165 | 74 |
| 600 Cypress St | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,464 (-2%) | 6mo | $245,000 | $167 | 72 |
| 306 E Roseboro St | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,350 (-9%) | 12mo | $220,000 | $163 | 64 |
| 412 Maple St | 0.21mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,375 (-8%) | 10mo | $229,000 | $167 | 60 |
| 205 Culbreth St | 0.51mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,538 (+4%) | 6mo | $215,000 | $140 | 56 |
| 410 Maple St | 0.21mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,322 (-11%) | 9mo | $229,000 | $173 | 55 |
| 302 S West St | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,300 (-12%) | 2mo | $234,500 | $180 | 52 |
| 304 S West St | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,300 (-12%) | 2mo | $234,500 | $180 | 51 |
| 408 W North St | 0.50mi | 2/2.0 | 1,314 (-12%) | 6mo | $180,000 | $137 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
8.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 7.71×
- Total profit
- $93,796
- Equity at exit
- $38,829
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 16.63×
- Total profit
- $218,419
- Equity at exit
- $77,969
Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State North Carolina
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 28382
- Home prices YoY
- 3.0%
- Active inventory
- 42
- Price-to-rent
- 2.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,822 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$262
- Tax from tax record
- −$21 /mo · $250/yr
- Insurance
- −$21
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$383
- Net cashflow
- $1,136
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $12,475
- Closing costs
- $1,497
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 5 events
-
2026-04-06status Pending
-
2026-03-29status Active
-
2026-03-22$49,900 Active
-
2022-07-15status Pending
-
2022-07-11$69,900 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $250 · $21/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $409 · $34/mo
- Expected delta
- +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 63.9%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $21,868
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,795
- − Property taxes
- −$250
- − Insurance
- −$250
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,749
- − Management
- −$1,749
- − Depreciation
- −$1,452
- Taxable income
- $13,623
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,269
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,367/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Sampson County Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3704140
- Math proficiency
- 40% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 41% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $37,391
- Composite
- 33.71/100
- National rank
- #5379
- State rank
- #114 of 178 in NC
Livability — Roseboro
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #445
- US rank
- #16397
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Roseboro, NC
- Population (ZIP)
- 6,659
Population outlook (Sampson County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 63,499 people
- By 2030
- 62,970 · -0.8%
- By 2040
- 61,609 · -3.0%
- By 2050
- 60,462 · -4.8%
- By 2075
- 60,108 · -5.3%
- By 2100
- 62,120 · -2.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 60% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Sampson
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+29.8) · D 34.8% · R 64.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -21.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.4pp · 2024: -29.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+16.7 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 8.27%
- Current HPI
- 288.151
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 26
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 2 | $213B |
|
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| Retail | 2 | $95B |
|
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| Industrial Conglomerate | 1 | $38B |
|
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Utilities | 1 | $30B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 1 | $19B |
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Price history
-28.6% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-06 Pending — Hive MLS
- 2026-03-29 Relisted — Hive MLS
- 2026-03-22 Listed $49,900 Hive MLS
- 2022-07-15 Pending — Hive MLS
- 2022-07-11 Listed $69,900 Hive MLS
Property tax history
-0.8%/yrLatest (2025): $250 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…