5909 N 38th St · Milwaukee, WI 53209

$134,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1951 5,662 sqft lot $128/sqft · 13% below area Est $156k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4BR Cape in handy location has a newer roof, siding and windows. Long time rental home with a side drive 2 car garage.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Windows
• 2 car garage

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• SIDING
• WINDOWS
• SIDE DRIVE
• 2 CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,555
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -13.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5866 N 39th St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,052 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$81	91
5751 N 38th St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (-1%)	1mo	$146,400	$140	85
4215 W Florist Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	977 (-7%)	2mo	$140,000	$143	68
5931 N 42nd St	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,183 (+12%)	0mo	$220,000	$186	60
5634 N 37th St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (+10%)	6mo	$159,000	$138	57
5438 N 41st St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,061 (+1%)	10mo	$122,000	$115	57
3207 W Oriole Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,194 (+14%)	4mo	$179,000	$150	53
5778 N 32nd St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	926 (-12%)	5mo	$106,000	$114	51
5376 N 38th St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,003 (-5%)	10mo	$98,751	$98	48
5880 N 29th St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (+9%)	4mo	$202,500	$177	48
4204 W Sheridan Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,167 (+11%)	4mo	$160,000	$137	46
5527 N 34th St	0.54mi	4/1.5	1,201 (+14%)	6mo	$85,000	$71	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,598
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $63,311
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53209

• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,600/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3931 W Kaul Ave Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,695	$1.21	44d	1	0.28mi
5696 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1023	$1,495	$1.46	24d	1	0.34mi
5541 N 35th St #5543 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,195	$1.06	4d	1	0.49mi
4334 W Eggert Pl Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1077	$1,695	$1.57	24d	1	1.04mi
4340 W Eggert Pl Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	24d	1	1.04mi
5165-5167 N 45th St Unit 5165 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	17d	1	1.06mi
4610 W Eggert Pl #4612 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	852	$1,095	$1.29	24d	1	1.10mi
5688 N 56th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,445	$1.70	12d	1	1.17mi
5032 N 32nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,750	$1.61	12d	1	1.17mi
5073 N 48th St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1152	$1,595	$1.38	14d	1	1.23mi
5830 N 61st St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,450	$1.42	44d	1	1.37mi
6046 N 61st St Unit 1 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,345	$1.12	24d	1	1.37mi
5657 N 60th St #5659 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	878	$995	$1.13	17d	1	1.37mi
6046 N 61st St Unit 2 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	44d	1	1.37mi
4127 W Kiley Ave Unit A Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,250	$1.22	44d	1	1.38mi
6221 W Thurston Ave #6223 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $134,900 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $134,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $134,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $134,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-04-14
    listed $134,900 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    4BR Cape in handy location has a newer roof, siding and windows. Long time rental home with a side drive 2 car garage.

11. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $150,000
12. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $37,500
13. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus $71,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,600
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,170
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,170
• Household income: $48,486
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3390.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.98%
• Current HPI: 172.4275
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.61%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+88.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $134,900 METROMLS
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,600 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.