9841 Shadow Wood Dr · Mobile, AL 36608

$199,219

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 304 Days on market

Built 1984 10,811 sqft lot Est $197k · at est. ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a VRM (Value Range Marketing) Listing. Seller will entertain offers between $199,000-$219,000. List Price equals average of upper and lower values. BACK ON MARKET - AT NO FAULT OF SELLER! Welcome to 9841 Shadow Wood Drive — a beautifully updated 4-bed, 3-bath home tucked in a quiet cul-de-sac in Trailwood. This move-in-ready property offers a modern feel, great natural light, and a long list of recent upgrades. Major Updates: • New HVAC system (2022) • New tankless water heater (2024) • New LVP flooring throughout • Fresh interior paint in neutral colors • Updated light fixtures, hardware, and plumbing fixtures • Updated interior doors and

Key facts

• Master suite
• New hvac
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• MASTER SUITE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NEW HVAC
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-624/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elsie Collier Elementary School (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #135 of 627 statewide, top 22%, 743 students, 55% FRL); Bernice J Causey Middle School (math 17% / reading 51%, grade F, #98 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 1,418 students, 53% FRL); Baker High School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 2,491 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 67% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,965 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,005
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9721 Royal Woods Dr N	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,207 (-5%)	5mo	$153,000	$127	80
860 Trailwood Dr E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	3mo	$108,250	$90	73
775 Hale Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-8%)	2mo	$200,000	$170	66
789 Royal Woods Dr W	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+10%)	6mo	$223,000	$160	66
835 Royal Woods Dr E	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+9%)	2mo	$215,000	$155	65
9601 Royal Woods Dr S	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,183 (-7%)	9mo	$183,000	$155	63
811 Royal Woods Dr W	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+10%)	8mo	$190,000	$136	63
9633 Royal Woods Dr S	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-13%)	3mo	$175,000	$159	59
750 Hale Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+13%)	2mo	$200,000	$139	58
9475 Ironwood Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+10%)	7mo	$205,000	$146	53
395 Norton Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+13%)	1mo	$170,000	$119	51
735 Copperfield Dr E	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+9%)	10mo	$235,000	$169	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,717
• Equity at exit: $29,704

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,641
• Equity at exit: $17,225

Cash invested: $55,781 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36608

• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,045
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $190,034

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $4	+0% $-52	+5% $-108	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-112	+0% $-52	+5% $8	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-1	base $-52	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,805
• Closing costs: $5,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9760 Royal Woods Dr N Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	45d	1	0.08mi
9650 Trailwood Dr S Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,275	$1.14	15d	1	0.28mi
9490 Cinder Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	3.0	1783	$1,800	$1.01	15d	1	0.51mi
725 Copperfield Dr E Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,500	$1.03	15d	1	0.61mi
791 Copperfield Dr E Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,495	$1.19	45d	1	0.62mi
1345 Baker Ct Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   status Active
3. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-18
   status Active
5. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-03
   status Active
7. 2026-01-31
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-15
   status Active
9. 2026-01-09
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-30
    price $199,219
11. 2025-12-08
    price $210,000
12. 2025-09-25
    price $219,229
13. 2025-09-16
    price $236,500
14. 2025-06-30
    price $239,000
15. 2025-05-28
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,159
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$996
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$5,795
• Taxable loss: −$4,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$993
• After-tax cash flow: $369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,890
• Household income: $61,146
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1823.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 35% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.52%
• Current HPI: 198.9469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.15%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-22 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-11 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-31 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-09 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $199,219 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $210,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $219,229 GCMLS AL
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $236,500 GCMLS AL
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $239,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-05-28 Listed $249,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,403 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.