9033 Oak Knoll Ln · Houston, TX 77078

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1953 7,318 sqft lot Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cozy and well-located home offering comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to major highways, shopping, and dining. Ideal for those seeking convenience and a welcoming residential setting.

Key facts

• 7,318 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1953; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Bedroom on the second floor; Bedroom on the third floor; Three total rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Washer and dryer hookups (electric and gas); Gas cooktop, Gas oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmore El (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 532 students, 99% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $170k implies a 1114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,496 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,082
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8901 Woodlyn Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,228 (+3%)	2mo	$155,000	$126	82
8913 Linda Vista Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,266 (+6%)	4mo	$175,000	$138	78
9037 Linda Vista Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-8%)	6mo	$189,000	$173	74
9219 Linda Vista Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,335 (+12%)	1mo	$210,000	$157	64
9306 Woodlyn Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-4%)	12mo	$143,800	$126	63
9203 Richland Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,060 (-11%)	12mo	$143,000	$135	59
9011 Parkette Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,226 (+3%)	9mo	$135,000	$110	58
9334 Laura Koppe Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	3mo	$189,900	$176	54
8546 Talton St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-6%)	10mo	$129,900	$116	53
9319 Richland Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,036 (-13%)	12mo	$145,000	$140	44
9415 Balsam Ln	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,308 (+10%)	8mo	$150,000	$115	41
9327 Richland Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,018 (-14%)	13mo	$140,000	$138	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $21,979
• Equity at exit: $71,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $75,671
• Equity at exit: $106,881

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,736/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $142	+0% $93	+5% $45	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $29	+0% $93	+5% $158	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $137	base $93	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	4d	1	0.17mi
9026 Lake Forest Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	977	$1,397	$1.43	0d	1	0.32mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.49mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.49mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.50mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.51mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	45d	1	0.52mi
8623 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	20d	1	0.52mi
8623 Homewood Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	45d	1	0.52mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	0.62mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	45d	1	0.65mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	25d	1	0.65mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.82mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	45d	1	0.87mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	22d	1	0.87mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,107	$1.07	25d	1	0.87mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,436	$1.41	15d	8	0.90mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1050	$1,264	$1.20	0d	11	0.97mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	0d	9	1.03mi
8309 Carolwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	938	$1,350	$1.44	45d	1	1.09mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	45d	1	1.12mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	45d	1	1.13mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	25d	2	1.14mi
8213 Linda Vista Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,625	$1.25	25d	1	1.16mi
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,575	$1.19	0d	1	1.16mi
8216 Richland Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.16mi
8113 Denton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.24mi
9405 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,675	$1.29	0d	1	1.24mi
8523 Brock Park Blvd Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,375	$1.22	6d	1	1.25mi
9930 Valley Lake Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1385	$1,795	$1.30	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 209-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $170,000 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,736
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$402
• After-tax cash flow: $1,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1114.3% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-01-28 Price Changed $64,900 HARMLS
• 2015-01-02 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,736 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.