2607 Morgan St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1948 8,712 sqft lot Est $113k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2 bedroom ranch on Saginaw's West Side! This beautiful home features fresh paint and flooring, ceramic tile flooring in bath and in the spacious kitchen. There's plenty of space in the full basement and extra storage in the garage. This home is conveniently located near restaurants, banking, medical, schools, churches, and it's just a short distance to I-675.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Extra storage
• Full basement

Tags

• FRESH PAINT
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• FULL BASEMENT
• EXTRA STORAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick, vinyl siding and wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Above-grade finished area approximately 784
• Exterior features: Front porch; City lot; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 112 (0.2 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with block construction
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $80k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2259 Avon St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,124 (-4%)	5mo	$41,000	$36	79
2512 WITTERS St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,095 (-7%)	3mo	$109,900	$100	72
3030 Brockton Pl	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,123 (-4%)	4mo	$137,000	$122	67
1724 State St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (-3%)	2mo	$75,000	$66	62
1827 Delaware St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,152 (-2%)	6mo	$17,500	$15	58
2208 W Genesee St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,102 (-6%)	5mo	$75,000	$68	57
2621 Whitemore Pl	0.55mi	2/2.5	1,074 (-9%)	6mo	$159,900	$149	49
35 Congress Court A	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,026 (-13%)	0mo	$115,000	$112	48
3027 Congress Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,261 (+7%)	7mo	$104,000	$82	48
2250 Mershon St	0.54mi	2/1.5	1,005 (-14%)	6mo	$104,000	$103	43
2450 N Mason St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,043 (-11%)	6mo	$100,000	$96	43
2844 Schemm St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,336 (+14%)	3mo	$40,000	$30	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $3,702
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $27,619
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,201/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 371-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$15/yr (+$1/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,201
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$969
• − Management: −$969
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$427
• After-tax cash flow: $2,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+60.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-16 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-07-18 Sold (MLS) $23,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-07-18 Sold (MLS) $23,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-07-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-31 Price Changed $27,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-11 Price Changed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-07 Listed $32,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-07 Listed $27,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-05-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-05-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-02-02 Listed $47,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-02-02 Listed $47,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-06-06 Sold (MLS) $48,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-06-06 Sold (MLS) $48,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-03-12 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-03-12 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,201 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.