10217 Neptune Ct · Waco, TX 76708

$315,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 $155/sqft · 7% below area Est $339k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kingston floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas is a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home covering approximately 2,032 sq. ft. The 2-car garage ensures plenty of space for vehicles and storage. In this floorplan, you'll find a home that makes the most of its space. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinetry with granite countertops as it flows into the dining area and great room. The bedrooms are carpeted, and the primary bedroom has an attached bathroom with a spacious walk-in closet. The secondary bathroom is practically placed for easy access to from the secondary bedrooms. Find plenty of space in the laundry room, that is through the kitchen and next to

Key facts

• Qolsys panel
• Granite countertops
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BACKYARD COVERED PATIO
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• QOLSYS PANEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,852 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,820
• List price: $315,530
• Delta: -6.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10516 T Bury	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,028 (-0%)	4mo	$379,900	$187	72
5825 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,150 (+6%)	3mo	$325,000	$151	71
5444 Zavalla Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (-5%)	2mo	$399,900	$207	70
10401 T Bury Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,131 (+5%)	3mo	$469,990	$221	68
5731 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (+6%)	3mo	$341,570	$159	65
5719 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (+6%)	5mo	$344,015	$160	64
5409 Black Horse Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (-6%)	4mo	$389,990	$203	62
10517 Rayburn Way	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (-9%)	5mo	$349,900	$189	62
5605 Beckon Fls	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,953 (-4%)	4mo	$323,420	$166	61
105 Gail Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+6%)	1mo	$294,777	$136	58
5601 Berkley Heights Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (+6%)	3mo	$300,230	$140	57
10616 Whitney Trce	0.37mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-12%)	4mo	$329,999	$184	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-74,898
• Equity at exit: $47,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-114,065
• Equity at exit: $27,281

Cash invested: $88,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,733/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,760

Max offer price $277,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-153	+0% $-262	+5% $-371	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-358	+0% $-262	+5% $-166	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-182	base $-262	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,882
• Closing costs: $9,466
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	22d	1	0.06mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	14d	1	0.53mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	44d	1	0.87mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $315,530 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $315,530 Active 1223-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,675
• − Property taxes: −$4,733
• − Insurance: −$1,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$9,179
• Taxable loss: −$8,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B