9011 Bay Lodge Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 6,192 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, all on one level. A versatile flex space provides endless possibilities for a home office, playroom, or additional living area. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the property features a beautifully landscaped backyard highlighted by a stone fence and a covered patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining year-round. The open and functional floor plan is filled with natural light and designed for comfortable everyday living. Enjoy the privacy, curb appeal, and convenience this home delivers. A must-see!

Key facts

• Landscaped backyard
• Covered patio
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• STONE FENCE
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Associa-managed association; Annual association fee: $750; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; South-facing; Single-story entry (first floor living); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fully fenced yard; Fence; Paved driveway; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Corner lot; Subdivision; Side yard; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Instant hot water; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $256,180.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,863 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,180
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -0.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,460
• Equity at exit: $38,197

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,425
• Equity at exit: $22,150

Cash invested: $71,730 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,343
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $256,180

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,045
• Closing costs: $7,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,265	$1.37	1d	1	0.14mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	17d	1	0.91mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	5d	1	1.28mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,073	$1.35	16d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $249,990 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,990 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-01
   price $254,990 25-char remark
10. 2026-04-28
    price $254,990 621-char remark
11. 2026-04-09
    listed $266,310 Active 621-char remark
12. 2026-04-09
    historical
13. 2026-04-08
    price $266,310 25-char remark
14. 2026-04-06
    price $266,310
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $291,310 Active 25-char remark
16. 2026-02-16
    listed $291,310 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,749/yr (+$312/mo · 453.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,350
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$1,281
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,452
• Taxable loss: −$3,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$770
• After-tax cash flow: $1,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $266,310 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $266,310 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $291,310 HARMLS