1822 Derby Rd · Osaka, VA 24216

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 969 Days on market

Built 1910 0.30 ac lot $52/sqft · 22% below area Est $73k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 969 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 969 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 7547% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $65k implies a 550% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 969 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.66%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,591
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -10.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1614 Derby Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,305 (+4%)	10mo	$60,000	$46	61
1626 Derby Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,414 (+12%)	22mo	$69,900	$49	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $16,812
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $49,920
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24216

• Home prices YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $447	+0% $429	+5% $411	+10% $392
Rent	-10% $340	-5% $384	+0% $429	+5% $474	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $445	base $429	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 969 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 967 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 966 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 965 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 964 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 963 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 962 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 961 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 958 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 957 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 956 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 955 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 952 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 951 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 950 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 949 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    price $65,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

18. 2026-03-18
    historical $850
19. 2025-12-04
    listed $850
20. 2025-12-04
    historical $850
21. 2025-12-03
    listed $850
22. 2025-04-14
    price $45,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

23. 2025-01-29
    status Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

24. 2025-01-01
    historical 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

25. 2024-05-16
    price $55,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

26. 2023-10-28
    status Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

27. 2023-08-29
    status Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Beautiful 2 story with tenants. Turn key for next owner. Property seems to be on a double lot. Possibly 5 car garage may go with the property. (per owner)

28. 2023-08-20
    historical 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Beautiful 2 story with tenants. Turn key for next owner. Property seems to be on a double lot. Possibly 5 car garage may go with the property. (per owner)

29. 2023-08-13
    historical 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

30. 2022-11-03
    listed $65,000 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Beautiful 2 story with tenants. Turn key for next owner. Property seems to be on a double lot. Possibly 5 car garage may go with the property. (per owner)

31. 2022-10-28
    listed $65,000 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Beautiful Property on a double lot. Recently renovated with repairs. Needs a little work & TLC to be finished and/or GREAT for a flipper.

32. 2020-06-05
    soldstatus $10,000
33. 2020-01-25
    listed $19,900
34. 1995-06-14
    soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$17/mo · 59.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $4,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Osaka

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,356

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.82%
• Current HPI: 112.8878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+154.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $65,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Rental Removed $850 TVRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed for Rent $850 TVRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Rental Removed $850 SWVAR
• 2025-12-03 Listed for Rent $850 SWVAR
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $45,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-01-29 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-01-01 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2024-05-16 Price Changed $55,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-10-28 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2023-08-29 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2023-08-20 Delisted — SWVAR
• 2023-08-13 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $65,000 SWVAR
• 2022-10-28 Listed $65,000 TVRMLS
• 2020-06-05 Sold (MLS) $10,000 TVRMLS
• 2020-01-25 Listed $19,900 TVRMLS
• 1995-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.