4387 Connecticut St · Gary, IN 46409

$8,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 874 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1926 3,920 sqft lot $10/sqft · 81% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special priced for a full renovation. This 2 bed / 1 bath property sits at approximately 800 sqft and is a complete rehab project, Perfect experienced investors or contractors looking for their next value-add opportunity.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1926

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $9k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $9k).
• Recommended offer: $8k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 133.8% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $61 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $264 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($8k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $8,272 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 14.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 133.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 455.30%
• DSCR: 21.26
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,570
• List price: $8,800
• Delta: -81.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4341 Maryland St	0.19mi	2/1.0	864 (-1%)	7mo	$59,000	$68	83
4217 Massachusetts St	0.21mi	2/1.0	840 (-4%)	1mo	$28,000	$33	83
4217 Maryland St	0.27mi	2/1.0	864 (-1%)	3mo	$49,900	$58	83
4019 Pennsylvania St	0.46mi	2/—	856 (-2%)	4mo	$36,500	$43	72
4016 Connecticut St	0.46mi	2/1.0	920 (+5%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	66
4002 Pennsylvania St	0.47mi	2/1.0	846 (-3%)	8mo	$50,000	$59	66
436 E 47th Pl	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+6%)	0mo	$157,000	$170	64
4525 Tyler St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	875 (+0%)	1mo	$136,000	$155	61
436 E 48th Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+6%)	2mo	$100,000	$108	60
908 E 44th Ave	0.44mi	2/1.5	790 (-10%)	2mo	$34,000	$43	60
4001 Virginia St	0.53mi	2/1.0	760 (-13%)	8mo	$45,000	$59	47
4055 Kentucky St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+14%)	1mo	$50,000	$50	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.58×
• Total profit: $60,566
• Equity at exit: $1,312

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 57.75×
• Total profit: $139,843
• Equity at exit: $761

Cash invested: $2,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46409

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$46
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $293/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $94

Max offer price $8,800

Occupancy floor 22%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,200
• Closing costs: $264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4456 Connecticut St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	2d	1	0.10mi
4327 Monroe St Unit 1st front Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	1d	1	0.42mi
624 W 44th Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	836	$1,250	$1.50	7d	1	0.54mi
4816 Massachusetts St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	15d	1	0.56mi
4748 Monroe St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,695	$1.58	1d	1	0.65mi
4018 Tyler St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	880	$1,350	$1.53	1d	1	0.83mi
5001 Carolina St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	2d	1	0.87mi
4170 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	19d	1	0.87mi
4905 Kentucky St Unit 4901 Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	24d	1	0.90mi
4040 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.93mi
4364 Buchanan St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	1d	1	0.95mi
4974 Tennessee St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	19d	1	0.98mi
3708 Harrison St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	904	$1,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.06mi
816 E 35th Ct Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	810	$1,075	$1.33	1d	1	1.15mi
3777 Lincoln St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	1d	1	1.25mi
1005 W 35th Ave Apt 105 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	601	$795	$1.32	18d	1	1.32mi
1005 W 35th Ave Apt 202 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	617	$795	$1.29	1d	1	1.32mi
1015 W 35th Ave Apt 206 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	601	$795	$1.32	43d	1	1.34mi
1240 W 52nd Dr Merrillville, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,349	$1.41	1d	9	1.37mi
801 E 32nd Ave Unit 2 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $8,800 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $8,800 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $8,800 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,800 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,800 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,800 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,800 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,800 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $8,800 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $8,800 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $8,800 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $8,800 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,500 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,500 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $12,500 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Investor special priced for a full renovation. This 2 bed / 1 bath property sits at approximately 800 sqft and is a complete rehab project, Perfect experienced investors or contractors looking for their next value-add opportunity.

16. 2026-03-09
    historical
17. 2026-02-07
    price $19,000
18. 2025-12-29
    price $20,000
19. 2025-12-08
    listed $25,000 Active
20. 2025-03-26
    historical
21. 2025-03-19
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2025-02-18
    price $19,900
23. 2024-06-27
    listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $293 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $293 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$493
• − Property taxes: −$293
• − Insurance: −$44
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$256
• Taxable income: $11,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,830
• After-tax cash flow: $8,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 7,184
• Household income: $44,667
• Rent vs Own: 55.5% rent · 44.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 14% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.91%
• Current HPI: 190.6724
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $12,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $19,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $20,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Listed $25,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $19,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-27 Listed $20,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-19.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $293 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.