3430 Ivy Ln · Nederland, TX 77627

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,963 sqft · Other

Built 1995 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with over 1,800 square feet of living space, offering comfort, space, and great features both inside and out. This home has a welcoming layout perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy the charm of a wood-burning fireplace, perfect for cozy evenings, along with granite countertops that add a stylish and durable touch to the kitchen. Step outside and you & acirc; & euro; & trade; ll find large front and back porches, perfect for morning coffee, grilling, or simply enjoying the outdoors. The fully fenced yard offers privacy and space for kids, pets, or gatherings, and the shed provides extra storage for tools or outdoor equipment.

Key facts

• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 35.4% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.07%
• DSCR: 5.63
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $71,723
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.47×
• Total profit: $194,921
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,124	-5% $1,108	+0% $1,093	+5% $1,077	+10% $1,062
Rent	-10% $952	-5% $1,023	+0% $1,093	+5% $1,163	+10% $1,233
Rate	-1.0pp $1,115	-0.5pp $1,104	base $1,093	+0.5pp $1,081	+1.0pp $1,069

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3405 Landrey Ct Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,746	$1.20	14d	1	0.14mi
2707 Seattle St Nederland, TX	3.0	2.5	2077	$1,850	$0.89	24d	1	0.98mi
3514 Hwy 69 N Nederland, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	14d	7	1.05mi
1903 N 19th St Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,950	$1.37	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $13,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,163
• After-tax cash flow: $9,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on painting and landscaping to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear
• Minor Landscaping — Needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Needs trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $45,000 FSBO.com