2440 County Road 4126 · New Boston, TX 75570

$80,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2007 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for affordable country living with room to make it your own? This 2007 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home sits on approximately . 5 acres in the Simms School District and offers plenty of potential for the right buyer. The home is currently undergoing an incomplete remodel (some drywall & flooring still to be done - drywall provided), giving you the opportunity to finish it out to match your style and vision. Enjoy peaceful country surroundings, extra outdoor space, and the flexibility of a split bedroom layout with plenty of room for family, hobbies, or entertaining. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity, starter home, or project property with potential, this on

Key facts

• Extra outdoor space
• Split bedroom layout
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• SIMMS SCHOOL DISTRICT
• EXTRA OUTDOOR SPACE
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with standard foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage structure on the property; County road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,178 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Simms ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #198 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.35%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $21,319
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $62,855
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75570

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $764

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $5,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Simms ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840320
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,223
• Composite: 41.83/100
• National rank: #3387
• State rank: #198 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Boston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #20597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,047
• Population (ZIP): 11,047

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.50%
• Current HPI: 156.8696
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $80,000 TBOR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.