7446 Keron Dr · Laurel Lake, NJ 08332

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $233k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into comfort and classic charm at 7446 Keron Dr, a welcoming single-family home in the heart of Millville. This home offers a bright and airy living space that seamlessly connects to the dining area, creating a perfect layout for entertaining family and friends or enjoying quiet evenings at home. The kitchen is a chef’s delight with abundant cabinetry providing ample storage for all your cooking essentials, making meal prep a breeze. Natural light floods the home, highlighting the warm, inviting interior. With 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, there’s plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a generous backyard where you can host gatherings, garden, or simp

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1975
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#521 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commercial Township School (math 5% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,303 statewide, top 84%, 470 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $185k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,464 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,704
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7241 Keron Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+5%)	2mo	$275,000	$227	71
537 Dandelion Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (+8%)	4mo	$35,000	$28	69
7933 Henry St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	12mo	$249,000	$202	67
1511 E Buckshutem Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,252 (+9%)	13mo	$276,000	$220	60
420 Doe Pl	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	7mo	$225,000	$213	58
7210 Dove Pl	0.40mi	3/1.0	988 (-14%)	1mo	$123,000	$124	57
7798 Battle Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$265,000	$230	54
7800 Battle Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	9mo	$273,000	$237	54
7220 Ash Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	8mo	$255,000	$199	51
7178 Keron Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	3mo	$170,000	$173	51
421 Evergreen Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-10%)	13mo	$200,000	$192	48
411 Begonia Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,324 (+15%)	7mo	$39,000	$29	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,780
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,945
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,212/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $163	+0% $111	+5% $58	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $39	+0% $111	+5% $182	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $158	base $111	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7357 William Ave Millville, NJ	2.0	1.0	938	$1,550	$1.65	45d	1	0.06mi
136 Robin Rd Millville, NJ	4.0	1.0	1308	$2,500	$1.91	45d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-16
   listed $185,000 Active
4. 2026-02-13
   historical $185,000
5. 2025-12-02
   status Active
6. 2025-12-02
   historical
7. 2025-11-17
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-17
   price $190,000
9. 2025-11-11
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-10-29
    price $175,000
11. 2025-10-21
    price $180,000
12. 2025-10-14
    price $187,500
13. 2025-09-18
    status Active
14. 2025-09-15
    listed $190,000 Active
15. 2025-09-15
    historical
16. 2025-04-28
    status Pending
17. 2025-04-28
    historical
18. 2025-04-24
    price $185,000
19. 2025-04-11
    price $190,000
20. 2025-02-20
    listed $200,000 Active
21. 2024-11-18
    soldstatus $42,000
22. 2020-01-29
    soldstatus $8,700 Closed
23. 2020-01-29
    soldstatus $8,700 Sold
24. 2020-01-20
    historical Under Contract
25. 2020-01-18
    status Pending
26. 2020-01-14
    price $9,900
27. 2020-01-13
    price $9,900
28. 2019-12-28
    status Active
29. 2019-12-26
    status Pending
30. 2019-12-10
    status Active
31. 2019-12-10
    status Active
32. 2019-12-09
    status Pending
33. 2019-12-09
    historical Under Contract
34. 2019-11-26
    price $14,000
35. 2019-11-26
    price $14,000
36. 2019-10-16
    price $24,000
37. 2019-10-15
    price $24,000
38. 2019-09-06
    price $29,000
39. 2019-09-06
    price $29,000
40. 2019-08-02
    price $39,000
41. 2019-08-01
    price $39,000
42. 2019-06-13
    price $49,000
43. 2019-06-12
    price $49,000
44. 2019-05-08
    price $55,000
45. 2019-05-07
    price $55,000
46. 2019-03-30
    listed $59,900 Active
47. 2019-03-30
    listed $59,900 Active
48. 1997-11-14
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,212 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,909 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,212
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$406
• After-tax cash flow: $1,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commercial Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403480
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,143
• Composite: 14.86/100
• National rank: #9378
• State rank: #449 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Laurel Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #22397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Lake, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+230.4% since first listed

48 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-13 Coming Soon $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-11 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $187,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-29 Sold (MLS) $8,700 SJSRMLS
• 2020-01-29 Sold (MLS) $8,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-20 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2020-01-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-14 Price Changed $9,900 SJSRMLS
• 2020-01-13 Price Changed $9,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-28 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-10 Relisted — SJSRMLS
• 2019-12-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-09 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2019-11-26 Price Changed $14,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-11-26 Price Changed $14,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-16 Price Changed $24,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-10-15 Price Changed $24,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-06 Price Changed $29,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-09-06 Price Changed $29,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $39,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-08-01 Price Changed $39,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-13 Price Changed $49,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-06-12 Price Changed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-08 Price Changed $55,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-05-07 Price Changed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $59,900 SJSRMLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,212 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.