602 Big Deer Dr · Houston, TX 77532

$164,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2020 0.30 ac lot $91/sqft · 40% below area Est $274k · 40% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Charming LOT completely fenced, is a great starter home. Or an investment property to buy and hold to lease for income producing. This house is in need of work inside & out. Come make it your own. With a spacious floor-plan & open living area that flows into the kitchen that includes a large island. It has 2 large bedrooms with spacious closets. 2 bathrooms Needs new Paint throughout, and TLC. Call today to schedule your appointment.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.78%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,377
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -40.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Mariachi St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+6%)	4mo	$345,000	$180	70
611 Big Deer Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,580 (-12%)	9mo	$234,900	$149	62
719 Moose Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,076 (+15%)	4mo	$285,000	$137	56
1322 Red Fox Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	14mo	$309,000	$167	52
1326 Red Fox Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	16mo	$309,000	$167	50
126 E Antelope Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+12%)	3mo	$67,000	$33	49
203 Antelope Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,014 (+12%)	18mo	$289,000	$143	40
1119 Big Deer Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-12%)	20mo	$245,000	$153	39
21206 Papoose Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,058 (+14%)	12mo	$265,000	$129	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,167
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $22,823
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,249/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22423 Woodlake Rd Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$1,935	$1.16	5d	1	1.17mi
1823 Black Bear Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2564	$2,395	$0.93	44d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $164,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $165,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $169,900 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This Charming LOT completely fenced, is a great starter home. Or an investment property to buy and hold to lease for income producing. This house is in need of work inside & out. Come make it your own. With a spacious floor-plan & open living area that flows into the kitchen that includes a large island. It has 2 large bedrooms with spacious closets. 2 bathrooms Needs new Paint throughout, and TLC. Call today to schedule your appointment.

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $176,750 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This Charming LOT completely fenced, is a great starter home. Or an investment property to buy and hold to lease for income producing. This house is in need of work inside & out. Come make it your own. With a spacious floor-plan & open living area that flows into the kitchen that includes a large island. It has 2 large bedrooms with spacious closets. 2 bathrooms Needs new Paint throughout, and TLC. Call today to schedule your appointment.

16. 2026-04-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This Charming LOT completely fenced, is a great starter home. Or an investment property to buy and hold to lease for income producing. This house is in need of work inside & out. Come make it your own. With a spacious floor-plan & open living area that flows into the kitchen that includes a large island. It has 2 large bedrooms with spacious closets. 2 bathrooms Needs new Paint throughout, and TLC. Call today to schedule your appointment.

17. 2026-03-09
    price $155,000
18. 2026-03-04
    price $159,900
19. 2026-02-18
    price $165,000
20. 2026-02-17
    listed $180,000 Active
21. 2025-04-19
    historical
22. 2025-04-05
    listed $239,900 Active
23. 2022-12-08
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2022-12-08
    soldstatus
25. 2022-11-24
    status Pending
26. 2022-11-14
    status Option Pending
27. 2022-10-29
    price $246,000
28. 2022-09-02
    price $249,000
29. 2022-07-29
    price $259,000
30. 2022-06-30
    listed $265,000 Active
31. 2015-11-30
    soldstatus
32. 2002-01-24
    soldstatus
33. 1992-12-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,249 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,249 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$5,249
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $3,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$759
• After-tax cash flow: $4,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $176,750 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-29 Price Changed $246,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,249 · +115.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.