602 Big Deer Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 0.30 ac lot $89/sqft · 37% below area Est $252k · 37% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This SHORT-Sale is NOW available for highest & best to be submitted for review & final approval till JULY 20th 26. @ 11am Central time. Please follow offer instructions. See agent instructions. Located on a nice LOT completely fenced, this is a great starter home. Or an investment property to buy and hold to lease for income producing. This house is in need of work inside & out. Let your ideas flow and make this house your home. With a spacious floor-plan & open living area that flows into the kitchen that includes a large island. It has 2 large bedrooms with spacious closets. 2 FULL bathrooms Needs new Paint throughout, and TLC.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 112 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.49%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,250
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -36.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Mariachi St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+6%)	6mo	$345,000	$180	69
611 Big Deer Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,580 (-12%)	10mo	$234,900	$149	61
719 Moose Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,076 (+15%)	6mo	$285,000	$137	54
103 Spanish Trace St	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,061 (+14%)	0mo	$350,000	$170	53
1322 Red Fox Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	16mo	$309,000	$167	50
1326 Red Fox Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	18mo	$309,000	$167	49
21210 Papoose	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,977 (+10%)	1mo	$300,000	$152	48
126 E Antelope Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+12%)	4mo	$67,000	$33	47
203 Antelope Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,014 (+12%)	19mo	$289,000	$143	38
1119 Big Deer Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-12%)	22mo	$245,000	$153	38
21206 Papoose Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,058 (+14%)	14mo	$265,000	$129	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $485
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $25,582
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -16.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,249/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $511	+0% $466	+5% $421	+10% $375
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $375	+0% $466	+5% $557	+10% $648
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $507	base $466	+0.5pp $425	+1.0pp $382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22423 Woodlake Rd Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$1,900	$1.14	12d	1	1.17mi
1823 Black Bear Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2564	$2,395	$0.93	93d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Happy Hide A Way associationAnnual association fee of $160 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Single-level entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding and wood sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 14)Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 21)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Two total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $159,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $159,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $159,900 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $164,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $164,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $164,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $164,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $164,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $164,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $164,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $164,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $164,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $164,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    remarks 683-char remark
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $164,000 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $164,000 Active 90 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $164,000 Active 89 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $164,000 Active 88 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $164,000 Active 87 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $164,000 Active 86 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $164,000 Active 85 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $164,000 Active 83 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 81 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $164,000 Active 80 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $164,000 Active 79 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $164,000 Active 78 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 77 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 76 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $164,000 Active 74 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $164,000 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $164,000 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $164,000 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $164,000 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $164,000 Active 68 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $164,000 Active 66 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $164,000 Active 65 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $164,000 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $164,000 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $164,000 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $164,000 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $164,000 Active 57 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $164,000 Active 53 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,000 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $164,000 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,900 Active 48 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,900 Active 47 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $165,900 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,249 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,249 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$5,249
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $4,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $45,150–$81,270 screening

This single-family home requires moderate renovations, including fresh paint and landscaping, to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint throughout — Paint is faded and peeling
• Moderate Exterior siding — Siding appears weathered

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint throughout — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Happy Hide A Way associationAnnual association fee of $160 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Single-level entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding and wood sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 14)Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 21)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Two total rooms

Price history

-38.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $165,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $176,750 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-29 Price Changed $246,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,249 · +115.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.