1157 Rocky Creek Rd · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31206

$104,499

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1940 8,712 sqft lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home for the money this home offers 3 Nice size bedrooms , 2 full bath , Large living room and situated on . 20 acres

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; House structure; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1940; Wood siding; Composition roof; Living/building area reported as 1106 sq ft
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (all on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type listed as Other); Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; Public records list living area as 1106 sq ft; No basement; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.5% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bruce Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,228 statewide, top 100%, 434 students, 100% FRL); Rutland Middle School (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 812 students, 100% FRL); Rutland High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $722 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,931 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4055 Emory Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (+10%)	2mo	$58,000	$48	60
1347 Schley St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,063 (-4%)	1mo	$45,500	$43	50
4133 Buena Vista Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,257 (+14%)	5mo	$45,000	$36	50
1151 N Beddingfield Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-2%)	9mo	$125,000	$116	50
1071 Sylvian Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (-10%)	9mo	$53,000	$53	48
706 Villa Esta Ave	0.64mi	4/1.0	1,184 (+7%)	4mo	$19,900	$17	47
706 Villa Esta Ave	0.64mi	4/1.0	1,184 (+7%)	4mo	$19,900	$17	47
1254 W Grenada Ter	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+7%)	3mo	$100,000	$84	46
4283 Worsham Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-10%)	8mo	$29,000	$29	44
3366 Pio Nono Cir	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	962 (-13%)	8mo	$106,000	$110	32
3366 Pio Nono Cir	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	962 (-13%)	8mo	$106,000	$110	32
3846 Flamingo Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,243 (+12%)	9mo	$45,000	$36	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,894
• Equity at exit: $15,581

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $41,826
• Equity at exit: $9,035

Cash invested: $29,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31206

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$548
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $104,499

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $350	+0% $320	+5% $291	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $273	+0% $320	+5% $367	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $347	base $320	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,125
• Closing costs: $3,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1240 Rocky Creek Rd Unit A Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1342	$1,090	$0.81	22d	1	0.16mi
1148 N Beddingfield Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1076	$825	$0.77	45d	1	0.35mi
832 Richmond St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1364	$925	$0.68	22d	1	0.38mi
846 Bedingfield Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1187	$975	$0.82	45d	1	0.41mi
1332 Hillridge Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	14d	1	0.43mi
4322 Mikado Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,230	$0.92	22d	1	0.48mi
955 Putnam St Unit 1 Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,199	$1.26	45d	1	0.65mi
4028 Saint Charles Pl Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	22d	1	0.69mi
1260 Auburn Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	45d	1	0.70mi
1260 Auburn Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,295	$1.50	22d	1	0.70mi
3685 Rice Mill Rd Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	45d	1	0.72mi
3709 Flamingo Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,300	$0.96	45d	1	0.72mi
3823 Saint Charles Pl Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.76mi
1164 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	45d	1	0.76mi
3778 Spencer Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	22d	1	0.77mi
3238 Somerset Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	14d	1	0.83mi
837 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	966	$750	$0.78	45d	1	0.85mi
3837 Spencer Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,300	$1.20	45d	1	0.88mi
3423 Flamingo Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$895	$0.85	45d	1	0.89mi
524 Carmen Pl Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,050	$0.89	45d	1	0.95mi
3080 Rice Mill Rd Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	45d	1	1.14mi
3080 Rice Mill Rd Unit C-1 Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1100	$925	$0.84	22d	1	1.14mi
1089 Brisbane St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	816	$1,075	$1.32	14d	1	1.16mi
645 Rutherford Ave Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1481	$1,395	$0.94	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,499 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,499 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,499 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $104,499 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,499 New 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,499 New 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,499 New 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,499 New 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,499 New 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $104,499 New 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,499 New 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,499 New 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 624-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $104,499 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $961 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 170.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,854
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$3,040
• Taxable income: $2,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$537
• After-tax cash flow: $3,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,310
• Household income: $30,042
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1335.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.17%
• Current HPI: 148.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $104,499 GAMLS
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,990 Public Records
• 2020-06-15 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MGMLS
• 2020-06-15 Sold (MLS) $10,000 CGMLS
• 2019-01-04 Listed $23,000 MGMLS
• 2019-01-01 Listed $23,000 CGMLS
• 2018-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $18,833 Public Records
• 2010-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2006-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $128,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.