3313 Overcup Oak Ter · Sarasota, FL 34237

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 959 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1973 3,831 sqft lot $210/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OAKWOOD MANOR — WHERE FUN, FRIENDSHIP & EASY FLORIDA LIVING COME TOGETHER! Affordable • Move-In Ready • Prime Location Welcome to Oakwood Manor, a highly sought-after 55+ resident-owned community nestled within the Sarasota city limits. Set on 90 lush, beautifully maintained acres, this vibrant neighborhood offers resort-style living with an incredibly low monthly fee of just $210. Enjoy an active and social lifestyle with top-tier amenities including a spacious clubhouse with commercial kitchen and stage, fitness center, and library. Unwind in the heated pool and oversized hot tub, or stay active with bocce ball, shuffleboard, putt-putt, and ping-pong. Pickleba

Key facts

• Event stage
• Fitness center
• Commercial kitchen

Tags

• 55 RESIDENT-OWNED COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS CLUBHOUSE
• COMMERCIAL KITCHEN
• EVENT STAGE
• FITNESS CENTER
• HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $160k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,629
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-28,325
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34237

• Rents YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,580/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $210 · $2,520/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $159,900
3. 2025-12-29
   listed $164,900 Active
4. 2011-05-02
   soldstatus $72,500
5. 2007-07-06
   soldstatus $60,000
6. 1999-03-29
   soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,580
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − HOA: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $1,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sarasota

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #1854

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sarasota, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 261,896
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,367
• Household income: $66,762
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 902.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.08%
• Current HPI: 370.7565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.03%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+271.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2007-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,580 · +123.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.