5031 Caldwell St · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1982 0.38 ac lot Est $264k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks in Spring Hill! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is priced below recent comparable sales, leaving real room for instant equity. Yes, it needs work — but that's exactly where the upside is. Bring your vision (and your contractor) and turn this one into a smart investment, a rental addition, or a personalized home at an entry-level price point. Sitting on Florida's Nature Coast in Hernando County, you're minutes from shopping, dining, and medical facilities, with the Suncoast Parkway providing a quick straight shot to Tampa and Tampa International Airport. Sold AS-IS for seller's convenience. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.38 acres (approx. 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); No home warranty; Unfurnished; Zoning: PDP-RES
• HOA & community: No association indicated; Development: Not Assigned

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing east; Residential, completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area ~1402 (public records)
• Exterior features: Storage structure on property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $199k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,667 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10924 Archway Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-3%)	11mo	$299,000	$219	71
319 Dartmouth Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-5%)	1mo	$234,000	$175	69
18918 Emerald Ridge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,413 (+1%)	10mo	$264,950	$188	69
10919 Midland Bridge Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-3%)	13mo	$250,000	$183	66
10413 Countrywood Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,413 (+1%)	13mo	$310,000	$219	64
18915 Summersong Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,538 (+10%)	6mo	$260,000	$169	64
18917 Parade Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+14%)	3mo	$330,000	$206	61
18847 Parade Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+14%)	5mo	$255,000	$159	58
258 Dartmouth Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,219 (-13%)	4mo	$235,000	$193	50
10304 Rainbow Oaks Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+8%)	11mo	$280,000	$184	47
18659 White Pine Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+9%)	14mo	$325,000	$213	42
10340 Autumnwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,599 (+14%)	14mo	$295,000	$184	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,005
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,114
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $320	+0% $264	+5% $207	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $190	+0% $264	+5% $337	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $314	base $264	+0.5pp $212	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18725 Parade Rd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,760	$1.24	0d	1	0.33mi
18802 Whiterock Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,995	$1.31	6d	1	0.62mi
10114 Briar Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,000	$1.31	25d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $199,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   remarks 675-char remark
6. 2026-06-08
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 62.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+193.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $67,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,016 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.