3949 Lothair Ave · North Port, FL 34287

$237,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,779 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1989 10,000 sqft lot $134/sqft · 29% below area Est $333k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Located in a convenient and established neighborhood in North Port, this well-cared-for home offers comfort, functionality, and peace of mind for a future owner occupant, along with the rare opportunity for instant equity due to its short sale pricing well below market value. The property is in good condition with meaningful improvements already completed, including impact windows installed in 2015, a rear shingle roof completed in July 2017, a front reroof completed in September 2018, a new electric water heater installed in December 2018, and a recently replaced A/C system. Everyday errands, dining, and services are just minutes away with easy access to shopping at Coco Plum Plaza, making day-to-day living both simple and convenient. This is a home that has been consistently maintained and thoughtfully improved over time. From an investment standpoint, the property is currently tenant occupied through June at $1,915 per month for full-time occupancy, providing immediate rental income. The lease will be month-to-month after June. Offered as a short sale and priced to sell below market value, this presents a compelling opportunity to acquire a cash-flowing property with upside potential in a growing area, subject to lender approval.

Key facts

• Replaced a/c system
• Front reroof
• Rear shingle roof

Tags

• IMPACT WINDOWS
• REAR SHINGLE ROOF
• FRONT REROOF
• ELECTRIC WATER HEATER
• REPLACED A/C SYSTEM
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $237,499 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$333,080) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $237k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,439/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 522% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $237k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,080
• List price: $237,499
• Delta: -28.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,782
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,016
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,369/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $237,499

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $369	+0% $302	+5% $235	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $205	+0% $302	+5% $398	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $362	base $302	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 Front Pl North Port, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,635	$2.33	2d	15	1.08mi
3428 W Price Blvd North Port, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,470	$1.33	15d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,499 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,499 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,499 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,499 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,499 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,499 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,499 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,499 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,499 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $237,499 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $237,499 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,499 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,499 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,499 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,499 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $237,499 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    Short Sale. Located in a convenient and established neighborhood in North Port, this well-cared-for home offers comfort, functionality, and peace of mind for a future owner occupant, along with the rare opportunity for instant equity due to its short sale pricing well below market value. The property is in good condition with meaningful improvements already completed, including impact windows installed in 2015, a rear shingle roof completed in July 2017, a front reroof completed in September 2018, a new electric water heater installed in December 2018, and a recently replaced A/C system. Everyday errands, dining, and services are just minutes away with easy access to shopping at Coco Plum Plaza, making day-to-day living both simple and convenient. This is a home that has been consistently maintained and thoughtfully improved over time. From an investment standpoint, the property is currently tenant occupied through June at $1,915 per month for full-time occupancy, providing immediate rental income. The lease will be month-to-month after June. Offered as a short sale and priced to sell below market value, this presents a compelling opportunity to acquire a cash-flowing property with upside potential in a growing area, subject to lender approval.

17. 2026-01-07
    listed $249,999 Active 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    Short Sale. Located in a convenient and established neighborhood in North Port, this well-cared-for home offers comfort, functionality, and peace of mind for a future owner occupant, along with the rare opportunity for instant equity due to its short sale pricing well below market value. The property is in good condition with meaningful improvements already completed, including impact windows installed in 2015, a rear shingle roof completed in July 2017, a front reroof completed in September 2018, a new electric water heater installed in December 2018, and a recently replaced A/C system. Everyday errands, dining, and services are just minutes away with easy access to shopping at Coco Plum Plaza, making day-to-day living both simple and convenient. This is a home that has been consistently maintained and thoughtfully improved over time. From an investment standpoint, the property is currently tenant occupied through June at $1,915 per month for full-time occupancy, providing immediate rental income. The lease will be month-to-month after June. Offered as a short sale and priced to sell below market value, this presents a compelling opportunity to acquire a cash-flowing property with upside potential in a growing area, subject to lender approval.

18. 2025-10-11
    historical $1,700
19. 2025-09-10
    price $1,700
20. 2025-09-03
    price $1,750
21. 2025-08-16
    listed $1,800
22. 2013-05-16
    historical
23. 2011-03-30
    listed $75,000
24. 2006-04-24
    listed $239,900
25. 2004-06-02
    soldstatus $114,000
26. 1996-10-21
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,369 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,369 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$3,369
• − Insurance: −$1,187
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $3,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $237,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $249,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Rental Removed $1,700 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $1,700 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $1,750 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-08-16 Listed for Rent $1,800 TENANTTURNER2
• 2013-05-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-30 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-24 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,369 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.