Springfield Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$276,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Springfield is built for keeping growing families connected, with a contemporary oversized great room and a spacious gourmet kitchen with an informal nook. An upstairs loft or roomy fourth bedroom adds flexibility for your family's needs. A first-floor covered patio option is great for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $276,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $316,914.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,751 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,914
• List price: $276,990
• Delta: -12.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
603 Louis Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	1mo	$269,210	$151	80
6822 Bens Lndg	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-4%)	0mo	$295,100	$166	73
6710 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$314,990	$182	72
6703 Alejandro Pl	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,055 (+11%)	2mo	$341,580	$166	69
6714 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+9%)	0mo	$325,990	$161	69
314 Ruby Ford Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,055 (+11%)	2mo	$361,990	$176	67
14815 Big Pine Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (-1%)	1mo	$319,900	$175	65
6826 Bens Lndg	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+10%)	1mo	$289,820	$143	62
6926 Bens Lndg	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+10%)	1mo	$320,180	$158	58
102 Pacific Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+10%)	0mo	$314,530	$155	53
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-12%)	0mo	$289,000	$177	45
7122 Thomas James Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-15%)	0mo	$286,920	$182	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-65,342
• Equity at exit: $47,253

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-71,816
• Equity at exit: $27,401

Cash invested: $88,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $320,990 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,754/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,772

Max offer price $282,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-127	+0% $-237	+5% $-346	+10% $-456
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-334	+0% $-237	+5% $-139	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-156	base $-237	+0.5pp $-319	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,229
• Closing costs: $9,507
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	93d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	50d	1	0.66mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	27d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	29d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	7d	1	0.89mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	0.96mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	23d	1	1.00mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	7d	1	1.06mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	23d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,136	$1.04	23d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,595	$1.24	12d	1	1.19mi
50A Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	20d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $276,990 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $276,990 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $276,990 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $276,990 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $276,990 Active 507 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $276,990 Active 504 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $276,990 Active 502 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $276,990 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $276,990 Active 499 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $276,990 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $276,990 Active 496 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $276,990 Active 495 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $276,990 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $276,990 Active 493 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 491 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 490 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $276,990 Active 489 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 488 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $276,990 Active 487 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 486 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 485 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $276,990 Active 484 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $276,990 Active 483 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $276,990 Active 482 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $276,990 Active 480 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $276,990 Active 479 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $276,990 Active 478 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $276,990 Active 477 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $276,990 Active 476 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 475 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $276,990 Active 474 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $276,990 Active 473 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $276,990 Active 472 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $276,990 Active 471 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $276,990 Active 470 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $276,990 Active 469 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $276,990 Active 467 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $276,990 Active 465 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $276,990 Active 464 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 461 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $276,990 Active 460 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $276,990 Active 459 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 458 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 456 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $276,990 Active 452 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $276,990 Active 451 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $276,990 Active 450 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,990 Active 447 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,990 Active 446 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 445 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,752
• − Property taxes: −$4,754
• − Insurance: −$1,585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − Depreciation: −$9,219
• Taxable loss: −$8,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,250–$27,750 screening

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal, making it a solid investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases home's marketability and convenience ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $284,990 Zillow