10195 Longhorn Cattle Ln · Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$364,150

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $164/sqft · 30% below area Est $520k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner's suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $364k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 831 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $289,274 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,530
• List price: $364,150
• Delta: -29.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9924 Annunciation Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,212 (-0%)	1mo	$489,990	$222	89
7615 Windchase Way	0.58mi	5/3.0	2,297 (+4%)	4mo	$455,000	$198	62
7743 Yale Harbor Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,172 (-2%)	6mo	$419,000	$193	56
32698 Windelstraw Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,297 (+4%)	3mo	$450,000	$196	55
31730 Spoonflower Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,350 (+6%)	9mo	$326,500	$139	54
31415 Bridgegate Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,147 (-3%)	0mo	$430,000	$200	54
9912 Annunciation Dr	0.58mi	5/3.0	2,457 (+11%)	2mo	$516,990	$210	51
9950 Annunciation Dr	0.58mi	5/3.0	2,457 (+11%)	2mo	$517,880	$211	51
7669 Windchase Way	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,297 (+4%)	16mo	$445,000	$194	46
7699 Windchase Way	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,297 (+4%)	15mo	$455,000	$198	45
31542 Tansy Bnd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,057 (-7%)	13mo	$540,000	$263	36
7859 Yale Harbor Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,028 (-8%)	14mo	$640,000	$316	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-82,173
• Equity at exit: $54,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-123,108
• Equity at exit: $31,485

Cash invested: $101,962 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $412,375 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 33 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 831
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,910
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$455 /mo · $5,462/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,186

Max offer price $330,681

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-105	+0% $-231	+5% $-357	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-346	+0% $-231	+5% $-117	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-139	base $-231	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,038
• Closing costs: $10,924
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7545 Pool Compass Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2585	$3,325	$1.29	120d	1	0.42mi
7465 Yale Harbor Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2754	$3,200	$1.16	32d	1	0.47mi
31422 Bridgegate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2153	$2,700	$1.25	120d	1	0.72mi
7507 Canal Point Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1831	$2,400	$1.31	120d	1	0.78mi
7942 Roma Dune Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2299	$2,995	$1.30	108d	1	0.81mi
7942 Roma Dune Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2295	$2,995	$1.31	110d	1	0.81mi
31882 Tansy Bnd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2057	$2,750	$1.34	84d	1	0.87mi
8737 Bower Bass Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,750	$1.35	88d	1	0.94mi
8200 Rockfleet Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1517	$2,397	$1.58	0d	8	0.96mi
7623 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,600	$1.15	100d	1	1.00mi
7623 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,600	$1.15	0d	1	1.00mi
7557 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,500	$1.11	10d	1	1.02mi
8052 Olive Brook Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2161	$3,200	$1.48	44d	1	1.04mi
7572 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2007	$2,500	$1.25	10d	1	1.05mi
31825 Lily Arbor Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2155	$2,600	$1.21	120d	1	1.06mi
31047 Stone Arch Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1990	$1,800	$0.90	56d	1	1.06mi
31037 Baclan Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,700	$1.14	78d	1	1.07mi
31478 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,545	$1.13	94d	1	1.07mi
31478 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,545	$1.13	88d	1	1.07mi
8332 Juning Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,607	$1.10	10d	1	1.08mi
31470 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,845	$1.16	110d	1	1.08mi
31000 Summer Sun Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	2.5	2823	$2,800	$0.99	120d	1	1.14mi
30847 Bridgegate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,995	$1.36	62d	1	1.16mi
30936 Baclan Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1979	$2,200	$1.11	32d	1	1.17mi
6741 Michael Favor Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,650	$1.43	60d	1	1.19mi
8086 Pelican Reed Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,600	$1.15	42d	1	1.20mi
31284 Penny Surf Loop Unit 1 Wesley Chapel South, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,650	$1.17	84d	1	1.20mi
8379 Ender Hills Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,545	$1.07	7d	1	1.21mi
6667 Depue Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$3,000	$1.16	5d	1	1.25mi
8318 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,399	$1.30	80d	1	1.25mi
31700 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,300	$1.23	10d	1	1.26mi
8454 Ender Hills Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.5	2605	$2,850	$1.09	2d	1	1.26mi
30820 Summer Sun Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	30d	1	1.27mi
8380 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,600	$1.00	67d	1	1.28mi
31603 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,500	$1.13	95d	1	1.32mi
31603 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2215	$2,650	$1.20	81d	1	1.32mi
31528 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,600	$1.39	7d	1	1.32mi
9294 Forge Breeze Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,700	$1.19	23d	1	1.33mi
8694 Parsons Hill Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,495	$1.29	10d	1	1.35mi
8769 Parsons Hill Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,595	$1.34	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,150 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,150 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,150 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $364,150 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $363,650 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 296-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $362,650 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,398
• − Property taxes: −$5,462
• − Insurance: −$1,821
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,777
• − Management: −$2,777
• − Depreciation: −$10,593
• Taxable loss: −$9,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,075–$33,225 screening

This spacious two-story home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in living areas — Freshens the interior and improves comfort ↑
• Rental Clean and organize bathrooms — Keeps the property in top condition for renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodlands Elementary School A FL #141/2,144 Nat'l #1,513/41,679 Middle Thomas E. Weightman Middle School C FL #246/571 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Wesley Chapel High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B