2249 Snow Hill Church Rd · Danbury, NC 27016

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1979 1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Log home situated on 1.3 acres. Home has lots of potential. Home has basement, 2 possible bedrooms and is situated off the road. Home does need a lot of work as there is currently no power on. Property is being sold as is. Cash or possibly conventional loan only.

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 93 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One and one-half story; Built in 1979; 1 fireplace (living room)
• Construction: Log construction; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Cleared and partially wooded lot; Publicly maintained road access; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Living Room on Main
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); No central cooling
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.7% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#192 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Stokes County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #78 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 230 units permitted in Stokes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Stokes County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.60%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $484,194
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2246 Snow Hill Church Rd	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,661 (+4%)	11mo	$140,000	$84	74
1190 Moorefield Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+0%)	14mo	$485,000	$303	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $64,995
• Equity at exit: $96,302

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $179,486
• Equity at exit: $192,520

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27016

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $263	-5% $228	+0% $192	+5% $157	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $143	+0% $192	+5% $241	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $224	base $192	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $124,900
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $129,900 Active
18. 2025-11-25
    price $135,000
19. 2011-06-08
    soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$68
• After-tax cash flow: $2,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stokes County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704380
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,284
• Composite: 39.58/100
• National rank: #3928
• State rank: #78 of 178 in NC

Livability — Danbury

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #9582

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,858

Population outlook (Stokes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,106 people
• By 2030: 42,264 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 37,833 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 32,818 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 23,281 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 15,676 · -64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stokes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.8% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.17%
• Current HPI: 244.3559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+49.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $124,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $129,900 Triad MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $135,000 Triad MLS
• 2011-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $972 · +32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.