Williston Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$427,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,595 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Good condition Garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This highly desired two-story home design features an open concept throughout the kitchen and gathering room. The second floor offers additional living space with a spacious loft. With four bedrooms including an Owner's Suite with expansive walk-in closet, the Williston has the perfect combination of space and functionality.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Spacious loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPACIOUS LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $427,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $499,212.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $428k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-862 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,537 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.40%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,212
• List price: $427,990
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10928 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.14mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+0%)	0mo	$382,000	$147	93
10923 Rabbit Grove Trl	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+0%)	0mo	$412,640	$158	91
11370 Meadow River Way	0.43mi	5/3.0	2,597 (+0%)	2mo	$464,150	$179	78
10655 Monarch Wood Gln	0.37mi	5/3.0	2,447 (-6%)	2mo	$379,000	$155	72
10405 Woodland Garden Way	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,537 (-2%)	0mo	$444,000	$175	70
10148 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,313 (-11%)	0mo	$386,910	$167	68
10421 Woodland Garden Way	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,537 (-2%)	1mo	$447,000	$176	68
10637 Fern Hollow Run	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+6%)	0mo	$428,990	$156	66
10108 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,313 (-11%)	1mo	$384,990	$166	65
9983 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-13%)	2mo	$368,990	$163	50
9965 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-13%)	0mo	$374,000	$165	50
10337 Spruce River Way	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,946 (+14%)	2mo	$598,760	$203	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-145,370
• Equity at exit: $74,434

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-234,207
• Equity at exit: $43,163

Cash invested: $139,779 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 134 active · 75 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $439,000 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$624 /mo · $7,488/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-862

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,367

Max offer price $374,421

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-517	-5% $-690	+0% $-862	+5% $-1,035	+10% $-1,207
Rent	-10% $-1,121	-5% $-992	+0% $-862	+5% $-733	+10% $-604
Rate	-1.0pp $-611	-0.5pp $-735	base $-862	+0.5pp $-992	+1.0pp $-1,123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,803
• Closing costs: $14,976
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10924 Rabbit Grove Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,800	$1.53	9d	1	0.13mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	119d	1	0.58mi
9581 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2112	$2,450	$1.16	73d	1	0.60mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,940	$1.15	87d	1	0.63mi
10407 Ladybug Cv Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,470	$1.09	65d	1	0.75mi
11234 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$3,495	$1.92	6d	1	0.79mi
9108 Royal River Cir Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2205	$2,750	$1.25	9d	1	1.00mi
10217 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2630	$3,700	$1.41	9d	1	1.10mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	98d	1	1.12mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	119d	1	1.21mi
11937 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,700	$1.32	73d	1	1.23mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	98d	1	1.26mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	106d	1	1.26mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	119d	1	1.38mi
10923 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	9d	1	1.39mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	98d	1	1.40mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	119d	1	1.41mi
7822 110th Ave E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2610	$3,200	$1.23	9d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $437,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Williston)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,595

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Williston plan)Active new-construction listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $427,990 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $427,990 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $427,990 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $427,990 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $427,990 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $427,990 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $427,990 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $427,990 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $427,990 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $427,990 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $427,990 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $427,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-09-06
    price $427,990 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $437,990 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $437,990 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $437,990 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $437,990 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $437,990 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $437,990 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $437,990 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $437,990 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $437,990 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $437,990 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $437,990 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $437,990 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $437,990 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $437,990 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $437,990 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $437,990 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $437,990 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $437,990 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $437,990 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $437,990 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $437,990 Active 95 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $437,990 Active 94 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $437,990 Active 93 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $437,990 Active 92 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $437,990 Active 91 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $437,990 Active 90 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $437,990 Active 89 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $437,990 Active 88 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $437,990 Active 87 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $437,990 Active 86 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $437,990 Active 85 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $437,990 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $437,990 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $437,990 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $437,990 Active 74 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $437,990 Active 73 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $437,990 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,488
• − Insurance: −$2,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,144
• − Management: −$3,144
• − Depreciation: −$14,523
• Taxable loss: −$19,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,975–$38,925 screening

This highly desired two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and structural integrity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New roof inspection — Ensures structural integrity and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $437,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Williston)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,595

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Williston plan)Active new-construction listing