Fairlane Plan · Lima, NY 14485

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 498 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 498 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#545 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Honeoye Falls-Lima Central School District (town): math 74% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #96 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 498 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 498 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.22%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-942
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $17,815
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14485

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $259	+0% $226	+5% $194	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $182	+0% $226	+5% $271	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $251	base $226	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 498 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 497 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 496 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 495 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 493 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 490 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 489 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 488 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 487 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 483 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 482 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 481 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 480 DOM
14. 2025-02-06
    listed $94,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$308
• After-tax cash flow: $2,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a clean exterior and well-maintained interior. It has potential for further value increases through cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor fixtures) — Fresh paint and updated fixtures can make the interior more appealing and increase value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and can attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can significantly boost the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor fixtures) — Fresh paint and updated fixtures can make the interior more appealing and increase value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and can attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can significantly boost the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Honeoye Falls-Lima Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614700
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $76,376
• Composite: 64.8/100
• National rank: #518
• State rank: #96 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lima

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #9779

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,163

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,466 people
• By 2030: 61,966 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 58,398 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 54,955 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 49,958 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 43,944 · -30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.4) · D 39.3% · R 60.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.4 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.25%
• Current HPI: 252.8543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-06 Listed $94,900 Zillow