1503 Melanie Dr · Union Park, FL 32825

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 913 sqft · Land · 32 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great lot in Cheney Heights area. Close to highways, shopping entertainment and parks. Bring your ideas, designs, and best offers!

Key facts

• Clear lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 31 days

Tags

• CLEAR LOT
• WATER AND SEWER AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.2% in Union Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#153 in FL, #2,308 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $140k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.90%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,116
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $58,433
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32825

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
933 Vista Palma Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1016	$2,150	$2.12	23d	1	0.53mi
2282 Grenwich Ave #2282 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$1,345	$1.38	23d	1	0.62mi
9201 Nelson Park Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,839	$2.18	2d	25	0.71mi
1222 Tino Ct Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	7d	1	0.82mi
2300 Econ Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$1,558	$1.74	14d	1	0.82mi
10039 Massey St Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	948	$1,595	$1.68	2d	1	0.86mi
10041 Massey St Alafaya, FL	2.0	2.0	948	$1,595	$1.68	23d	1	0.87mi
1312 Ravida Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,650	$1.58	3d	1	0.96mi
1000 Avida Village Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,488	$2.55	1d	22	1.07mi
8211 Sun Spring Cir #41 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,499	$1.41	4d	1	1.19mi
2211 River Park Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,928	$2.17	21d	1	1.22mi
8215 Sun Spring Cir #23 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,550	$1.46	21d	1	1.24mi
8225 Claire Ann Dr #203 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,725	$1.65	3d	1	1.38mi
7909 Richwood Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$1,950	$2.08	21d	1	1.38mi
8103 Lillies Way #107 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	7d	1	1.39mi
604 Laurel Cove Ct Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,968	$2.21	1d	15	1.42mi
949 Crowsnest Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	822	$1,754	$2.13	1d	31	1.43mi
8137 Claire Ann Dr #207 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,750	$1.67	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $140,000 Active
16. 2023-07-11
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Great lot in Cheney Heights area. Close to highways, shopping entertainment and parks. Bring your ideas, designs, and best offers!

17. 2023-06-14
    status Pending 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Great lot in Cheney Heights area. Close to highways, shopping entertainment and parks. Bring your ideas, designs, and best offers!

18. 2023-06-02
    listed $60,000 Active 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Great lot in Cheney Heights area. Close to highways, shopping entertainment and parks. Bring your ideas, designs, and best offers!

19. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus $138,000
20. 2021-03-02
    soldstatus $138,000 Sold 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    For data purposes only

21. 2021-01-21
    status Pending 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    For data purposes only

22. 2021-01-13
    listed $138,000 Active 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    For data purposes only

23. 2006-11-28
    historical
24. 2006-09-27
    listed $168,000
25. 2005-08-16
    soldstatus $140,000
26. 2005-07-29
    soldstatus $140,000
27. 2005-05-12
    listed $140,000
28. 2005-01-26
    soldstatus $122,500
29. 2005-01-10
    soldstatus $122,500
30. 2004-06-14
    listed $120,000
31. 2004-03-11
    soldstatus $57,000
32. 1995-02-27
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $5,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,210
• After-tax cash flow: $5,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Union Park

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #2308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,698
• Household income: $81,651
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 32% Two or more races 23% Black 11% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.52%
• Current HPI: 315.8496
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+159.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-07-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-02 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-02 Sold (MLS) $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-13 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-27 Listed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-29 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-12 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2005-01-10 Sold (MLS) $122,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-14 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.