2038 S Wilson Rd · Radcliff, KY 40160

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1973 0.53 ac lot Est $208k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Selling AS-IS, no repairs, 3 Bed 1 bath with an Outbuilding. Big open Kitchen and a fireplace in the Living room. This property is in a great location with trees on one side and set back off the road.

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Big open kitchen
• Trees on one side

Tags

• OUTBUILDING
• BIG OPEN KITCHEN
• FIREPLACE IN THE LIVING ROOM
• TREES ON ONE SIDE
• SET BACK OFF THE ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Windsor Place subdivision; Directions: Turn off South Dixie Blvd onto Centennial Ave, turn right — property is the second on the right.
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; One HVAC unit
• Home design: Single-family ranch home; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built in 1973
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Four closets; One fireplace on the main level; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.5% in Radcliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#367 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.02%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Horseshoe Ct	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,221 (+2%)	2mo	$60,000	$49	91
2860 Liberty St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,233 (+3%)	5mo	$208,305	$169	65
103 Morninglory Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-6%)	12mo	$207,000	$183	54
104 Morninglory Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+4%)	18mo	$225,000	$180	52
2671 Lake Road North Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+5%)	8mo	$199,900	$159	50
100 Daffodil Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-2%)	14mo	$210,000	$178	47
1916 S Woodland Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+3%)	19mo	$247,000	$199	46
292 Miller Ave	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-4%)	15mo	$175,000	$152	45
2882 Republic Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-6%)	10mo	$196,000	$173	45
2740 Pioneer Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+7%)	18mo	$158,000	$123	43
119 Ruby Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,304 (+9%)	15mo	$230,000	$176	40
1156 Blackjack Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	19mo	$178,500	$133	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,424
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $23,096
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40160

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $923

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $350	+0% $319	+5% $287	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $266	+0% $319	+5% $371	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $347	base $319	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active
18. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-24
    price $109,900
20. 2026-04-24
    status Active
21. 2026-04-21
    status Pending
22. 2026-04-17
    listed $135,000 Active
23. 2007-11-19
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 92.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $3,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Radcliff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #17445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Radcliff, KY
• County: Hardin County · 77,611 people
• City population: 23,624
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,624
• Household income: $58,506
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 638.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.02%
• Current HPI: 268.1177
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $109,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $135,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-11-19 Listed $55,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $491 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.