409 Lance Ln · Birmingham, AL 35206

$25,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1966 0.37 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 big bedroom and 2 bath house home with a stone fireplace in the den. Also a huge master bedroom with dressing area plus two (2) new car garage door in the basement. No Credit Check with only 20.000 down and 350 a month P & I only !!!!!!! or 12.500 down on a lease purchase. other no credit check at mls # 571642 , 571658,547390,539626, 577015,577016,OR BRING MY SELLER ANY CASH OFFER ASAP !!!!! MAKE ANY CASH OFFER NOW .

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.37 acres; Located in the Shadywood subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Side garage entry; Lower level / off-street parking; 2 total garage spaces (2 in basement level)
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Internet service available (provider TBD)
• Home design: Existing home; Four-sided brick construction; Basement foundation; Single-story main level layout (rooms located on level 1)
• Construction: 4-sided brick exterior; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; No pool, patio, decks, or garden/patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on main level including a master bedroom
• Flooring: Subflooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on main level
• Heating & cooling: No heat; No air conditioning
• Interior features: Subflooring throughout; Ceilings: Other (see remarks); Full daylight basement (all unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area (unfinished)

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $25,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$207,792) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.1% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Christian School (math 19% / reading 60%, grade F, #243 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 633 students, 62% FRL); Huffman High Schoolmagnet (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,147 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 82% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 135.00%
• DSCR: 7.01
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
624 Hickory St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	4mo	$228,999	$164	83
427 Hickory St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+10%)	13mo	$212,000	$137	69
613 Chestnut St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+10%)	11mo	$240,000	$156	62
615 Esplanade Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-2%)	22mo	$207,000	$150	57
610 Mountain Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	2mo	$231,000	$148	56
824 Covington Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+14%)	13mo	$257,000	$161	51
623 Esplanade Dr	0.46mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,459 (+4%)	22mo	$202,000	$138	47
532 Rutherford Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+8%)	23mo	$265,000	$175	44
848 86th St S	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,226 (-13%)	4mo	$155,000	$126	43
8636 9th Court Cir S	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,516 (+8%)	13mo	$95,000	$63	40
669 Ridge Top Cir	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,202 (-14%)	3mo	$153,500	$128	32
8525 9th St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-11%)	22mo	$69,000	$55	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $44,696
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.98×
• Total profit: $97,862
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8621 10th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	23d	1	0.65mi
625 Lisa Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,200	$0.71	19d	1	0.93mi
630 Lisa Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1201	$1,095	$0.91	44d	1	0.96mi
600 Sundale Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$800	$0.84	44d	1	1.01mi
425 87th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,077	$1.21	44d	1	1.05mi
8229 9th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	997	$1,195	$1.20	3d	1	1.10mi
9228 Brookhurst Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1146	$999	$0.87	44d	1	1.12mi
636 83rd Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,175	$1.11	44d	1	1.18mi
8917 Roebuck Blvd Apt 11 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$725	$0.82	16d	1	1.19mi
745 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,168	$0.97	2d	1	1.21mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	44d	1	1.22mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,528	$1.39	44d	1	1.25mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	10d	1	1.25mi
730 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,023	$1.14	3d	1	1.25mi
8242 Vassar Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1212	$1,100	$0.91	44d	1	1.27mi
775 81st Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,095	$0.89	23d	1	1.28mi
726 Orchard Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,095	$0.98	44d	1	1.28mi
8211 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	966	$1,250	$1.29	44d	1	1.31mi
1108 Hob Hill Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1646	$1,600	$0.97	16d	1	1.32mi
8122 Rugby Ave Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	1.34mi
735 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,400	$1.14	23d	1	1.39mi
603 Camp Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	44d	1	1.39mi
1108 Sherwood Forest Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1118	$1,370	$1.23	44d	1	1.40mi
731 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1221	$995	$0.81	10d	1	1.40mi
768 80th Pl S Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	44d	1	1.41mi
8013 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	1.45mi
832 79th Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	1.46mi
8202 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,075	$0.91	44d	1	1.48mi
7808 Vienna Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	904	$850	$0.94	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $25,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $25,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-05-24
   listed $49,900 Active
8. 2014-01-22
   soldstatus $34,000
9. 2014-01-13
   soldstatus $33,750 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   2 big bedroom and 2 bath house home with a stone fireplace in the den. Also a huge master bedroom with dressing area plus two (2) new car garage door in the basement. No Credit Check with only 20.000 down and 350 a month P & I only !!!!!!! or 12.500 down on a lease purchase. other no credit check at mls # 571642 , 571658,547390,539626, 577015,577016,OR BRING MY SELLER ANY CASH OFFER ASAP !!!!! MAKE ANY CASH OFFER NOW .

10. 2013-08-23
    listed $33,750 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    2 big bedroom and 2 bath house home with a stone fireplace in the den. Also a huge master bedroom with dressing area plus two (2) new car garage door in the basement. No Credit Check with only 20.000 down and 350 a month P & I only !!!!!!! or 12.500 down on a lease purchase. other no credit check at mls # 571642 , 571658,547390,539626, 577015,577016,OR BRING MY SELLER ANY CASH OFFER ASAP !!!!! MAKE ANY CASH OFFER NOW .

11. 2012-08-17
    soldstatus $21,333 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 2 Bath home ready for you to update and make your own! Great potential - Den with stone fireplace, Huge Master Bedroom with dressing area. 2 car garage. Right of Redemption may apply.

12. 2012-04-30
    listed $28,000 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 2 Bath home ready for you to update and make your own! Great potential - Den with stone fireplace, Huge Master Bedroom with dressing area. 2 car garage. Right of Redemption may apply.

13. 1997-05-13
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,310
• After-tax cash flow: $7,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-26.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $49,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2014-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-13 Sold (MLS) $33,750 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-08-23 Listed $33,750 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2012-08-17 Sold (MLS) $21,333 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2012-04-30 Listed $28,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1997-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,408 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.