3029 21st Street Ensley · Birmingham, AL 35208

$78,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,031 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1952 8,276 sqft lot $76/sqft · 5% above area Est $74k · 5% over ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently rented at $960 per month. Professionally managed with tenant in place & rent rolls. Subject to Existing Lease (expiring May 31, 2026)- No Early Termination Representation- No Seller Repair Obligation (unless expressly agreed in writing)- No Warranty of Tenant Cooperation beyond statutory obligations- Buyer Assumes All Landlord Obligations at Closing- Buyer Indemnification for Any Tenant-Related Claims Post-Closing. 3 bed / 2 bath home.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $78k implies a 680% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.65%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,153
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: 5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2716 29th St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+0%)	2mo	$48,000	$47	82
3102 Border St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,019 (-1%)	1mo	$75,000	$74	76
1400 4th Ct W	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (+13%)	4mo	$11,000	$9	54
2700 30th Street Ensley	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,136 (+10%)	6mo	$33,500	$29	54
1324 1st Ct W	0.48mi	2/1.0	978 (-5%)	22mo	$27,900	$29	51
1508 Graymont Ave W	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,084 (+5%)	19mo	$55,000	$51	47
1205 4th Ct W	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,146 (+11%)	7mo	$43,000	$38	46
1312 1st Ct W	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (+11%)	3mo	$177,000	$154	46
2643 16th Street Ensley	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,084 (+5%)	17mo	$42,500	$39	45
1722 Decatur Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	948 (-8%)	23mo	$84,500	$89	45
1320 1st Ct W	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (+11%)	14mo	$179,900	$157	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $10,084
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $52,655
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35208

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2916 24th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$590	$0.69	24d	1	0.10mi
2304 Eufaula Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1381	$980	$0.71	44d	1	0.14mi
1621 2nd Ct W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,095	$1.02	44d	1	0.25mi
2712 24th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,099	$0.89	24d	1	0.34mi
1720 Cullman Ave Unit 3 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1174	$950	$0.81	44d	1	0.40mi
1720 Cullman Ave Unit 2 Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1174	$899	$0.77	21d	1	0.40mi
3113 Pike Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,275	$1.12	44d	1	0.40mi
2661 Bush Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,200	$1.17	44d	1	0.41mi
1642 Graymont Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1219	$1,090	$0.89	3d	1	0.44mi
2621 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,295	$1.16	44d	1	0.44mi
2609 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,550	$1.26	44d	1	0.46mi
2609 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	3d	1	0.46mi
219 12th St W Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	24d	1	0.56mi
2356 22nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1500	$985	$0.66	24d	1	0.63mi
612 12th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1242	$1,150	$0.93	44d	1	0.64mi
1119 Graymont Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,073	$0.85	2d	1	0.65mi
1024 4th Ave W Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	840	$823	$0.98	44d	1	0.71mi
2337 23rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1446	$1,295	$0.90	44d	1	0.72mi
1101 7th Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,250	$1.00	44d	1	0.72mi
2421 29th Street Ensley Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$703	$0.74	24d	1	0.74mi
1000 4th Ave W Unit 4 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	840	$823	$0.98	24d	1	0.76mi
2329 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	917	$990	$1.08	24d	1	0.81mi
908 4th Ave W Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$745	$1.06	24d	1	0.83mi
2037 26th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$995	$0.93	44d	1	0.87mi
2426 Avenue U Unit U Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,175	$0.93	19d	1	0.88mi
1437 Woodland Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1369	$1,100	$0.80	3d	1	0.89mi
1220 Alabama Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,350	$1.15	44d	1	0.92mi
132 17th St SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	738	$945	$1.28	44d	1	0.93mi
827 6th Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1214	$1,075	$0.89	24d	1	0.93mi
405 11th St SW Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1065	$800	$0.75	44d	1	0.99mi
1228 Fulton Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.00mi
724 4th Ct W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1300	$930	$0.72	44d	1	1.01mi
1316 Court R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	904	$900	$1.00	10d	1	1.07mi
624 4th Ct W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	992	$1,250	$1.26	44d	1	1.10mi
1825 18th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,123	$0.85	44d	1	1.11mi
617 7th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,175	$1.05	44d	1	1.12mi
3009 Prince Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,095	$0.93	24d	1	1.13mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	3d	1	1.13mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	44d	1	1.13mi
644 Alabama Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,125	$0.88	24d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $78,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $78,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-03-17
   price $78,000 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   Currently rented at $960 per month. Professionally managed with tenant in place & rent rolls. Subject to Existing Lease (expiring May 31, 2026)- No Early Termination Representation- No Seller Repair Obligation (unless expressly agreed in writing)- No Warranty of Tenant Cooperation beyond statutory obligations- Buyer Assumes All Landlord Obligations at Closing- Buyer Indemnification for Any Tenant-Related Claims Post-Closing. 3 bed / 2 bath home.

4. 2026-02-26
   price $88,000 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   Currently rented at $960 per month. Professionally managed with tenant in place & rent rolls. Subject to Existing Lease (expiring May 31, 2026)- No Early Termination Representation- No Seller Repair Obligation (unless expressly agreed in writing)- No Warranty of Tenant Cooperation beyond statutory obligations- Buyer Assumes All Landlord Obligations at Closing- Buyer Indemnification for Any Tenant-Related Claims Post-Closing. 3 bed / 2 bath home.

5. 2026-02-03
   listed $92,000 Active 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   Currently rented at $960 per month. Professionally managed with tenant in place & rent rolls. Subject to Existing Lease (expiring May 31, 2026)- No Early Termination Representation- No Seller Repair Obligation (unless expressly agreed in writing)- No Warranty of Tenant Cooperation beyond statutory obligations- Buyer Assumes All Landlord Obligations at Closing- Buyer Indemnification for Any Tenant-Related Claims Post-Closing. 3 bed / 2 bath home.

6. 2012-02-24
   soldstatus $10,000 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   2 living spaces, upstairs are 2 bedrooms, bath, kitchen; downstairs is bedroom, bath, and bonus/kitchenette. Please verify school system.

7. 2011-12-29
   listed $12,900 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   2 living spaces, upstairs are 2 bedrooms, bath, kitchen; downstairs is bedroom, bath, and bonus/kitchenette. Please verify school system.

8. 2007-02-27
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$987
• − Management: −$987
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $2,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$553
• After-tax cash flow: $2,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,412
• Household income: $38,561
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 573.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.99%
• Current HPI: 153.414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.24%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $78,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $88,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $92,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2012-02-24 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2011-12-29 Listed $12,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2007-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.