13223 Oxeye Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$329,945

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · Land · 173 Days on market

Built 2025 5,162 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Greenway is a thoughtfully designed 1,601 square foot single-story home offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, this home adapts easily to a variety of lifestyles. The open concept layout creates a seamless flow throughout the main living areas. At the heart of the home is an L-shaped kitchen that boasts a central island with a breakfast bar, comfortably seating up to four. Perfect for entertaining or casual meals, the kitchen overlooks both the dining area and the expansive great room. Natural light fills the space, with large windows lining the exterior wall from t

Key facts

• Central island
• L-shaped kitchen
• Covered lanai

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• COVERED LANAI
• SMART HOME FEATURES
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount: $2,254; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $15 (includes pool); Association amenities: pool, playground, pickleball court(s), dog park; Deed restrictions; Sidewalks in the community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 18x20 dimensions and garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction (projected completion July 2026); Two levels; West-facing
• Construction: Block and cement siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Mattamy Homes (Greenway Craftsman model)
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sidewalks; Level, paved lot; Trees and landscaped grounds; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; In-wall pest control system; Pest guard system; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Upper level laundry

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $279,182 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-67,305
• Equity at exit: $49,196

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-97,370
• Equity at exit: $28,528

Cash invested: $92,385 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,792 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,949/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,905

Max offer price $316,974

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,486
• Closing costs: $9,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	15d	1	0.28mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	23d	1	0.96mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	1.05mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	23d	1	1.23mi
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	2d	1	1.34mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $329,945
3. 2026-03-14
   price $331,945
4. 2025-11-26
   listed $349,945 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,482
• − Property taxes: −$4,949
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,680
• − Management: −$2,680
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$9,598
• Taxable loss: −$6,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $329,945 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $331,945 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Listed $349,945 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid