3188 Turner Rd SE · Salem, OR 97302

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2018 Est $185k · 30% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover modern comfort and style in this stunning 2018-built manufactured home in Lakeside Village's vibrant all-age community. Spanning 1,444 sqft, this gem features soaring 12-foot ceilings w/ elegant crown molding and an abundance of windows that fill the space with natural light. Enjoy year-round comfort with ceiling fans and a versatile heat pump. The island bar kitchen is a chef's delight with deep sinks, while the spacious bathrooms and bedrooms, including a owner's suite with a walk-in closet,

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Lakeside village
• Laundry area

Tags

• LAKESIDE VILLAGE
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• LAUNDRY AREA
• GYM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No assessments or liens reported; Possession negotiable
• HOA & community: Park rent includes garbage and access to the swimming pool (plus other items referenced in remarks); Located in Lakeside Village, an all-age park with shared amenities and a laundry area

Exterior

• Parking: One garage space; Carport
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; Built in 2018; Single-story (main-level living); Palm Harbor model
• Construction: Composite siding with lap-style appearance; Composition roof; Serial number: PHH310OR1812
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Covered deck; Shed (outbuilding); Park amenities include clubhouse, swimming pool, playground, and gym

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level with eating bar; Electric range included; Microwave included; Dishwasher; Plenty of storage and counter space; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Primary suite on the main level with walk-in closet and private bath; All bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Primary bathroom with tile shower; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Forced air
• Interior features: High-speed internet access available; Ceiling height is notable (soaring ceilings); Crown molding
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Utility room located on the main level; Laundry area available in the park

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bush Elementary School (254 students, 72% FRL); Leslie Middle School (743 students, 76% FRL); South Salem High School (2,256 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 53% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.06%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-0%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	89
3236 Turner Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	88
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$171	86
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-0%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	81
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	80
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	79
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	79
3100 Turner Rd SE #311	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	10mo	$155,000	$113	77
3474 Turner Rd SE	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+3%)	6mo	$144,600	$97	75
3100 Turner Rd SE #424	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	10mo	$217,500	$159	72
3340 Turner Rd SE	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	3mo	$128,000	$79	69
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-3%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,600
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,355
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97302

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,663/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $279	+0% $242	+5% $206	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $165	+0% $242	+5% $320	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $276	base $242	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.72mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	15d	1	0.93mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	45d	1	1.11mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,099	$2.27	15d	1	1.15mi
2315 Strong Heights Ln SE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1087	$2,350	$2.16	45d	1	1.25mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	15d	26	1.40mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	25d	1	1.40mi
3955 Outward Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,249	$2.32	15d	20	1.40mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	15d	1	1.41mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	25d	1	1.46mi
2306 Audubon Ave SE Salem, OR	4.0	2.5	1856	$3,200	$1.72	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 383-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,663
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $2,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,799
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -382.78%
• Current HPI: 296.7837
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $130,000 WVMLS
• 2024-11-08 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2024-11-07 Sold (MLS) $151,400 WVMLS
• 2024-10-22 Pending — WVMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $155,000 WVMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $159,900 WVMLS
• 2021-03-22 Sold (MLS) $144,200 WVMLS
• 2021-02-11 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-02-08 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2021-01-28 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-01-11 Listed $149,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $1,663 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.