2442 Goddard Green Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2020 5,998 sqft lot $154/sqft · 13% below area Est $319k · 13% under $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home situated on a cul-de-sac street in the desirable Sierra Vista community! This one story boasts a great layout w/open-concept living, high ceilings, abundant natural light, a dedicated home office, 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. The kitchen is equipped w/stainless steel appliances, a center island w/breakfast bar seating, rich wood cabinetry, subway tile backsplash & a walk-in pantry. Custom accent wall w/shelving in the family room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat w/a soaking tub, separate shower, dual-sink vanity & a walk-in closet. A large covered patio in the backyard is ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include fresh interior paint, full sprinkler system, spray foam insulation for added efficiency, new ceiling fans, and the refrigerator, washer & dryer are all included! Numerous community amenities: resort-style pool, heated lazy river, pickleball courts, clubhouse w/a fitness room, splash pad, multiple sports courts, and much more!

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,537 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,009
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -12.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2442 Goddard Green Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,809 (0%)	0mo	$279,000	$154	100
2429 Abbot Brook Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-9%)	2mo	$210,000	$128	81
1910 Temple Grove Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+2%)	0mo	$368,990	$201	70
1907 Temple Grove Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+2%)	8mo	$346,535	$189	63
10518 Sutter Creek Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+2%)	3mo	$354,900	$192	63
2445 Abbot Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,070 (+14%)	9mo	$309,900	$150	62
2119 Tioga View Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-8%)	3mo	$359,900	$217	61
2107 Tioga View Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-8%)	1mo	$359,900	$217	60
2409 Abbot Brook Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,070 (+14%)	8mo	$324,900	$157	60
1919 Tioga View Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+4%)	8mo	$396,900	$212	60
10618 Sutter Creek Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+4%)	2mo	$408,900	$218	59
1814 Homewood Point Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-10%)	3mo	$319,990	$196	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-68,779
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-107,043
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$690 /mo · $8,282/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $231,537

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-190	+0% $-269	+5% $-348	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-375	+0% $-269	+5% $-162	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-198	base $-269	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.45mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	45d	7	0.47mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	0d	6	0.47mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	0d	20	0.64mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	45d	1	0.75mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	24d	1	1.06mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	9d	1	1.16mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,186	$1.26	1d	1	1.18mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	45d	1	1.24mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	45d	1	1.25mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	4d	1	1.26mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	0d	1	1.32mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	0d	1	1.33mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	0d	1	1.36mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	1.40mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	1.40mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	22d	1	1.41mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	0d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 998-char remark

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on a cul-de-sac street in the desirable Sierra Vista community! This one story boasts a great layout w/open-concept living, high ceilings, abundant natural light, a dedicated home office, 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. The kitchen is equipped w/stainless steel appliances, a center island w/breakfast bar seating, rich wood cabinetry, subway tile backsplash & a walk-in pantry. Custom accent wall w/shelving in the family room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat w/a soaking tub, separate shower, dual-sink vanity & a walk-in closet. A large covered patio in the backyard is ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include fresh interior paint, full sprinkler system, spray foam insulation for added efficiency, new ceiling fans, and the refrigerator, washer & dryer are all included! Numerous community amenities: resort-style pool, heated lazy river, pickleball courts, clubhouse w/a fitness room, splash pad, multiple sports courts, and much more!

2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 998-char remark

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on a cul-de-sac street in the desirable Sierra Vista community! This one story boasts a great layout w/open-concept living, high ceilings, abundant natural light, a dedicated home office, 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. The kitchen is equipped w/stainless steel appliances, a center island w/breakfast bar seating, rich wood cabinetry, subway tile backsplash & a walk-in pantry. Custom accent wall w/shelving in the family room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat w/a soaking tub, separate shower, dual-sink vanity & a walk-in closet. A large covered patio in the backyard is ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include fresh interior paint, full sprinkler system, spray foam insulation for added efficiency, new ceiling fans, and the refrigerator, washer & dryer are all included! Numerous community amenities: resort-style pool, heated lazy river, pickleball courts, clubhouse w/a fitness room, splash pad, multiple sports courts, and much more!

3. 2026-04-10
   listed $279,000 Active 998-char remark

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on a cul-de-sac street in the desirable Sierra Vista community! This one story boasts a great layout w/open-concept living, high ceilings, abundant natural light, a dedicated home office, 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. The kitchen is equipped w/stainless steel appliances, a center island w/breakfast bar seating, rich wood cabinetry, subway tile backsplash & a walk-in pantry. Custom accent wall w/shelving in the family room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat w/a soaking tub, separate shower, dual-sink vanity & a walk-in closet. A large covered patio in the backyard is ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include fresh interior paint, full sprinkler system, spray foam insulation for added efficiency, new ceiling fans, and the refrigerator, washer & dryer are all included! Numerous community amenities: resort-style pool, heated lazy river, pickleball courts, clubhouse w/a fitness room, splash pad, multiple sports courts, and much more!

4. 2026-04-10
   historical

   Show marketing remark (998 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on a cul-de-sac street in the desirable Sierra Vista community! This one story boasts a great layout w/open-concept living, high ceilings, abundant natural light, a dedicated home office, 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. The kitchen is equipped w/stainless steel appliances, a center island w/breakfast bar seating, rich wood cabinetry, subway tile backsplash & a walk-in pantry. Custom accent wall w/shelving in the family room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat w/a soaking tub, separate shower, dual-sink vanity & a walk-in closet. A large covered patio in the backyard is ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include fresh interior paint, full sprinkler system, spray foam insulation for added efficiency, new ceiling fans, and the refrigerator, washer & dryer are all included! Numerous community amenities: resort-style pool, heated lazy river, pickleball courts, clubhouse w/a fitness room, splash pad, multiple sports courts, and much more!

5. 2026-03-06
   listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,282 · $690/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,282 · $690/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$8,282
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,595
• − Management: −$2,595
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,869
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $285,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+52.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,282 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.