154 Pintail Ln · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2023 5,998 sqft lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stop Renting and Start Living! Affordable, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked away at the end of a dead-end road for added peace and privacy. Located just minutes from the lake and the Trinity River, this property is a dream for avid fishermen and water lovers alike. Why settle for weekend trips when you can enjoy lake-area living every day? Whether you?re looking for your first home, a weekend getaway, or a place to enjoy the outdoors year-round, this one is worth a look

Key facts

• Trinity river
• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Built 2023

Tags

• MINUTES FROM THE LAKE
• TRINITY RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $122 of equity ($483 loan paydown + $-361 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.15%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $24,488
• Equity at exit: $18,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $64,996
• Equity at exit: $20,867

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $597

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $69,900 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $69,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $79,900 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Stop Renting and Start Living! Affordable, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked away at the end of a dead-end road for added peace and privacy. Located just minutes from the lake and the Trinity River, this property is a dream for avid fishermen and water lovers alike. Why settle for weekend trips when you can enjoy lake-area living every day? Whether you're looking for your first home, home. Rental investment opportunity, a weekend getaway, or a place to enjoy the outdoors year-round, this one is worth a look!

17. 2026-05-12
    price $79,900 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Stop Renting and Start Living! Affordable, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked away at the end of a dead-end road for added peace and privacy. Located just minutes from the lake and the Trinity River, this property is a dream for avid fishermen and water lovers alike. Why settle for weekend trips when you can enjoy lake-area living every day? Whether you're looking for your first home, home. Rental investment opportunity, a weekend getaway, or a place to enjoy the outdoors year-round, this one is worth a look!

18. 2026-04-21
    listed $84,900 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Stop Renting and Start Living! Affordable, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked away at the end of a dead-end road for added peace and privacy. Located just minutes from the lake and the Trinity River, this property is a dream for avid fishermen and water lovers alike. Why settle for weekend trips when you can enjoy lake-area living every day? Whether you're looking for your first home, home. Rental investment opportunity, a weekend getaway, or a place to enjoy the outdoors year-round, this one is worth a look!

19. 2026-04-20
    listed $84,900 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Stop Renting and Start Living! Affordable, like-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked away at the end of a dead-end road for added peace and privacy. Located just minutes from the lake and the Trinity River, this property is a dream for avid fishermen and water lovers alike. Why settle for weekend trips when you can enjoy lake-area living every day? Whether you?re looking for your first home, a weekend getaway, or a place to enjoy the outdoors year-round, this one is worth a look

20. 2025-09-10
    historical
21. 2025-07-17
    price $68,000
22. 2025-07-08
    price $70,000
23. 2025-05-06
    listed $72,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$528/yr (+$44/mo · 70.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,458
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $4,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $84,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $68,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $72,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.