1554 S San Joaquin St · Stockton, CA 95206

$315,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,481 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 280 Days on market

Built 1910 7,000 sqft lot $213/sqft · 13% below area Est $363k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Discover an incredible investment opportunity at 1554 S San Joaquin St, Stockton, CA 95206! This charming duplex, built in 1910, offers 1,481 sq. ft. of living space on a spacious 7,000 sq. ft. lota rare find in this prime location near Downtown Stockton. Each unit provides a unique potential for rental income or multi-generational living. With its classic architectural character and ample lot size, this property offers numerous possibilities for investors looking to expand their portfolio.

Key facts

• Ample lot size
• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1910

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• AMPLE LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $456/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,617/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 1459% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $315k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.41%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,338
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -13.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 E 9th St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,540 (+4%)	15mo	$250,000	$162	40
923 - 925 S Center St	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (+14%)	22mo	$485,000	$286	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,631
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $30,330
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95206

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,945/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$760
• Net cashflow: $912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,462

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 70%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,618
Total (2 units)			$3,617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 272 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2016-08-19
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,945 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,394 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$449/yr (+$37/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,945
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,472
• − Management: −$3,472
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable income: $6,131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $9,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 68,558
• Household income: $83,432
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1459.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% Black 11% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 46% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.27%
• Current HPI: 357.6069
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2016-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,945 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.