Amelia Front Load Garage Plan · Cambridge, MD 21613

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · Townhouse · 639 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A new three-story townhome features a versatile recreation room and two-car garage upon entry. The second floor hosts a modern open-concept layout situated among the Great Room, dining area and kitchen, along with a flex space ideal for at-home work. At the top level are all three bedrooms to provide peaceful retreats, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Multi-use trails
• Private marina
• Lush wetlands

Tags

• PRIVATE MARINA
• MULTI-USE TRAILS
• LUSH WETLANDS
• RIVER MARSH GOLF CLUB

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,659.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-728 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,487/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 639 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,688 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 639 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.01%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,659
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -23.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 111B	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-6%)	9mo	$226,000	$131	62
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 409E	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-11%)	6mo	$435,000	$265	58
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 304E	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-12%)	9mo	$407,500	$250	53
2164 Winterberry Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,172 (+18%)	6mo	$392,645	$181	51
527 Seaway Ln	1.09mi	3/2.5	1,796 (-2%)	13mo	$307,500	$171	50
2146 Winterberry Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,195 (+19%)	7mo	$309,990	$141	50
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 311B	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-18%)	9mo	$275,000	$182	48
2186 Winterberry Ln	0.41mi	3/3.0	2,148 (+17%)	9mo	$279,990	$130	47
2150 Winterberry Ln #20	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-16%)	11mo	$299,990	$194	46
2199 Winterberry Ln Unit K	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-16%)	12mo	$249,990	$162	42
2194 Winterberry Ln Unit G	0.50mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,148 (+17%)	12mo	$272,990	$127	32
326 Shipyard Dr #84	1.02mi	3/3.0	2,118 (+15%)	8mo	$275,000	$130	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-109,484
• Equity at exit: $58,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-154,906
• Equity at exit: $33,691

Cash invested: $109,104 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 84.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $314,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 21613

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,043
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,845/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,409

Max offer price $284,286

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-459	-5% $-594	+0% $-728	+5% $-863	+10% $-997
Rent	-10% $-925	-5% $-826	+0% $-728	+5% $-630	+10% $-532
Rate	-1.0pp $-532	-0.5pp $-629	base $-728	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,415
• Closing costs: $11,690
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2102 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,800	$1.47	184d	1	0.30mi
2104 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	184d	1	0.30mi
2108 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	184d	1	0.31mi
2914 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	4.0	3.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	184d	1	0.39mi
2185 Winterberry Ln Unit L Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1762	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	0.45mi
2208 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,450	$1.28	184d	1	0.54mi
2214 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,450	$1.26	184d	1	0.55mi
309 Maryland Ave Apt B Cambridge, MD	2.0	1.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	0d	1	1.15mi
214 Tidewater Dr Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	5d	1	1.16mi
401 N Seaway Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1867	$2,600	$1.39	184d	1	1.17mi
401 N Seaway Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1890	$2,700	$1.43	5d	1	1.17mi
414 Waterfield Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,395	$1.20	184d	1	1.24mi
318 E Appleby Ave Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,100	$1.37	184d	1	1.29mi
406 Robbins St Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	184d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 639 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 638 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 637 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 636 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 635 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 633 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $299,990 Active 632 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 631 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 630 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 629 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 628 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 627 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 626 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 625 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 624 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 623 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 622 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 621 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 620 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 619 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 618 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 617 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 616 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 615 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 614 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 613 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 612 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 611 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 610 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 609 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 608 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 607 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 606 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 605 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 604 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 603 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 602 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 601 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 600 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 599 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 598 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 597 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 596 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 595 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 594 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 593 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 591 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 590 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 588 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 587 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,827
• − Property taxes: −$5,845
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − Depreciation: −$11,336
• Taxable loss: −$15,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,813
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Maple Elementary School F MD #740/860 Nat'l #40,442/41,679 Middle Mace's Lane Middle School F MD #212/225 Nat'l #13,515/14,009 High Cambridge-South Dorchester High School F MD #151/222 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #13046

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, MD
• County: Dorchester · 31,699 people
• Population (ZIP): 18,167
• Household income: $53,171
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.03%
• Current HPI: 271.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Listed $299,990 Zillow