Amelia Front Load Garage Plan · Cambridge, MD 21613

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · Townhouse · 547 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A new three-story townhome features a versatile recreation room and two-car garage upon entry. The second floor hosts a modern open-concept layout situated among the Great Room, dining area and kitchen, along with a flex space ideal for at-home work. At the top level are all three bedrooms to provide peaceful retreats, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Multi-use trails
• Private marina
• Lush wetlands

Tags

• PRIVATE MARINA
• MULTI-USE TRAILS
• LUSH WETLANDS
• RIVER MARSH GOLF CLUB

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $398,191.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-759 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,522/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 547 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,238 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 547 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,191
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -24.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 111B	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-6%)	6mo	$226,000	$131	64
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 409E	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-11%)	3mo	$435,000	$265	60
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 304E	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-12%)	6mo	$407,500	$250	56
2164 Winterberry Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,172 (+18%)	3mo	$392,645	$181	53
527 Seaway Ln	1.09mi	3/2.5	1,796 (-2%)	10mo	$307,500	$171	52
2146 Winterberry Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,195 (+19%)	4mo	$309,990	$141	52
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 311B	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-18%)	6mo	$275,000	$182	50
2186 Winterberry Ln	0.41mi	3/3.0	2,148 (+17%)	6mo	$279,990	$130	49
2150 Winterberry Ln #20	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-16%)	8mo	$299,990	$194	49
2199 Winterberry Ln Unit K	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-16%)	8mo	$249,990	$162	45
2194 Winterberry Ln Unit G	0.50mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,148 (+17%)	10mo	$272,990	$127	35
326 Shipyard Dr #84	1.02mi	3/3.0	2,118 (+15%)	5mo	$275,000	$130	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-112,835
• Equity at exit: $59,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-160,358
• Equity at exit: $34,428

Cash invested: $111,493 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 25.2 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $315,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +32.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 21613

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,088
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$498 /mo · $5,973/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,483

Max offer price $288,344

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-484	-5% $-622	+0% $-759	+5% $-897	+10% $-1,034
Rent	-10% $-958	-5% $-859	+0% $-759	+5% $-659	+10% $-560
Rate	-1.0pp $-559	-0.5pp $-658	base $-759	+0.5pp $-862	+1.0pp $-967

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,548
• Closing costs: $11,946
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2102 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,800	$1.47	93d	1	0.30mi
2104 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	93d	1	0.30mi
2108 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	93d	1	0.31mi
2914 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	4.0	3.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	93d	1	0.39mi
2208 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,450	$1.28	93d	1	0.54mi
2214 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,450	$1.26	93d	1	0.55mi
401 N Seaway Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1867	$2,600	$1.39	93d	1	1.17mi
414 Waterfield Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,395	$1.20	93d	1	1.24mi
318 E Appleby Ave Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,100	$1.37	93d	1	1.29mi
406 Robbins St Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	93d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 547 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 546 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 545 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 544 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 542 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 539 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 538 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $299,990 Active 537 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $299,990 Active 535 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 533 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 532 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 531 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 530 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 529 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 526 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 524 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 523 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 522 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 521 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 520 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 519 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 518 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 517 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 515 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 514 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 513 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 512 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 511 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 510 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 509 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 508 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 507 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 506 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 505 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 503 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 500 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 499 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 498 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 496 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 495 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 494 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 493 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 491 DOM
44. 2026-06-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 490 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 487 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 486 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 485 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 484 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 481 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 480 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,305
• − Property taxes: −$5,973
• − Insurance: −$1,991
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$11,584
• Taxable loss: −$16,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,942
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Maple Elementary School F MD #740/860 Nat'l #40,442/41,679 Middle Mace's Lane Middle School F MD #212/225 Nat'l #13,515/14,009 High Cambridge-South Dorchester High School F MD #151/222 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #13046

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, MD
• County: Dorchester · 31,699 people
• Population (ZIP): 18,167
• Household income: $53,171
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.03%
• Current HPI: 271.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Listed $299,990 Zillow