Amelia Front Load Garage Plan · Cambridge, MD 21613

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · Townhouse · 500 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A new three-story townhome features a versatile recreation room and two-car garage upon entry. The second floor hosts a modern open-concept layout situated among the Great Room, dining area and kitchen, along with a flex space ideal for at-home work. At the top level are all three bedrooms to provide peaceful retreats, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Multi-use trails
• Private marina
• Lush wetlands

Tags

• PRIVATE MARINA
• MULTI-USE TRAILS
• LUSH WETLANDS
• RIVER MARSH GOLF CLUB

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $400,407.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 500 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,238 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 500 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.29%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,407
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -25.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 111B	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-6%)	5mo	$226,000	$131	65
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 409E	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-11%)	1mo	$435,000	$265	61
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 304E	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-12%)	5mo	$407,500	$250	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-114,170
• Equity at exit: $59,702

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-162,776
• Equity at exit: $34,620

Cash invested: $112,114 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21613

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,100
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$501 /mo · $6,006/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,503

Max offer price $288,344

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-498	-5% $-636	+0% $-774	+5% $-913	+10% $-1,051
Rent	-10% $-974	-5% $-874	+0% $-774	+5% $-675	+10% $-575
Rate	-1.0pp $-573	-0.5pp $-673	base $-774	+0.5pp $-878	+1.0pp $-984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,102
• Closing costs: $12,012
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2102 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,800	$1.47	46d	1	0.30mi
2104 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	46d	1	0.30mi
2108 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	46d	1	0.31mi
2914 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	4.0	3.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	46d	1	0.39mi
2208 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,450	$1.28	46d	1	0.54mi
2214 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,450	$1.26	46d	1	0.55mi
401 N Seaway Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1867	$2,600	$1.39	46d	1	1.17mi
414 Waterfield Ct Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,395	$1.20	46d	1	1.24mi
318 E Appleby Ave Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,100	$1.37	46d	1	1.29mi
406 Robbins St Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	46d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,990 Active 500 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 499 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 498 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 496 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 495 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 494 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 493 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 491 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,990 Active 490 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 487 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 486 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 485 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 484 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 481 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 480 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 479 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 478 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 477 DOM
19. 2025-02-08
    listed $299,990 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A new three-story townhome features a versatile recreation room and two-car garage upon entry. The second floor hosts a modern open-concept layout situated among the Great Room, dining area and kitchen, along with a flex space ideal for at-home work. At the top level are all three bedrooms to provide peaceful retreats, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,429
• − Property taxes: −$6,006
• − Insurance: −$2,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$11,648
• Taxable loss: −$16,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,998
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #13046

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, MD
• Population (ZIP): 18,167

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.03%
• Current HPI: 271.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Listed $299,990 Zillow