16844 SW 41st Ave · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$294,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · Land · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 0.50 ac lot $161/sqft · 6% above area Est $279k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

0.43-Acre Lot — Nearly Twice the Space of Neighboring Homes | Move-In Ready | New Construction. Imagine having almost double the outdoor space compared to every other new home on the street — room for a pool, a playground, a garden, or simply the privacy that most families can only dream of in this area. This is that home. Set on an exceptional 0.43-acre lot in one of Ocala's fastest-growing communities, this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,833 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space — move-in ready today, with no construction wait and closing cost assistance available. Inside, the open-concept layout connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen in a seamless flow filled with natural light — perfect for family life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar for everyday moments. The four bedrooms provide space for the whole family, with a split floor plan that gives the primary suite the privacy it deserves. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The expansive backyard offers endless possibilities: add a pool, build an outdoor kitchen, create a play area for kids, or simply enjoy the rare privacy that a lot this size provides in Marion Oaks. No tight neighbors. No compromises. Additional highlights include a 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty for added peace of mind, and a location minutes from shopping, dining, and I-75 for easy commuting. Homes with lots this size at this price point don't last. * If space matters to your family, this is your opportunity.

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Ample cabinet space
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• 0.43 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $295k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,238 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,735
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: 5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-60,611
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,426
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $276,661

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17000 SW 41st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	0.06mi
17191 SW 40th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	14d	1	0.24mi
4473 SW 168th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,000	$1.11	14d	1	0.31mi
4513 SW 170th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	21d	1	0.34mi
4535 SW 172nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,150	$1.15	14d	1	0.38mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	14d	1	0.38mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	14d	1	0.39mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.71mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	0.82mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	14d	1	0.90mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	0.90mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.92mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.93mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.94mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	14d	1	0.98mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	21d	1	0.98mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	14d	1	1.02mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	1.06mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	14d	1	1.07mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	21d	1	1.18mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	14d	1	1.30mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	21d	1	1.35mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	14d	1	1.36mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.38mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	21d	1	1.38mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	1.43mi
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	21d	1	1.43mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	14d	1	1.46mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	1.47mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,900 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $294,900 1600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1600 chars)

    0.43-Acre Lot — Nearly Twice the Space of Neighboring Homes | Move-In Ready | New Construction. Imagine having almost double the outdoor space compared to every other new home on the street — room for a pool, a playground, a garden, or simply the privacy that most families can only dream of in this area. This is that home. Set on an exceptional 0.43-acre lot in one of Ocala's fastest-growing communities, this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,833 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space — move-in ready today, with no construction wait and closing cost assistance available. Inside, the open-concept layout connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen in a seamless flow filled with natural light — perfect for family life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar for everyday moments. The four bedrooms provide space for the whole family, with a split floor plan that gives the primary suite the privacy it deserves. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The expansive backyard offers endless possibilities: add a pool, build an outdoor kitchen, create a play area for kids, or simply enjoy the rare privacy that a lot this size provides in Marion Oaks. No tight neighbors. No compromises. Additional highlights include a 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty for added peace of mind, and a location minutes from shopping, dining, and I-75 for easy commuting. Homes with lots this size at this price point don't last. * If space matters to your family, this is your opportunity.

17. 2026-04-30
    price $299,990 1600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1600 chars)

    0.43-Acre Lot — Nearly Twice the Space of Neighboring Homes | Move-In Ready | New Construction. Imagine having almost double the outdoor space compared to every other new home on the street — room for a pool, a playground, a garden, or simply the privacy that most families can only dream of in this area. This is that home. Set on an exceptional 0.43-acre lot in one of Ocala's fastest-growing communities, this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,833 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space — move-in ready today, with no construction wait and closing cost assistance available. Inside, the open-concept layout connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen in a seamless flow filled with natural light — perfect for family life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar for everyday moments. The four bedrooms provide space for the whole family, with a split floor plan that gives the primary suite the privacy it deserves. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The expansive backyard offers endless possibilities: add a pool, build an outdoor kitchen, create a play area for kids, or simply enjoy the rare privacy that a lot this size provides in Marion Oaks. No tight neighbors. No compromises. Additional highlights include a 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty for added peace of mind, and a location minutes from shopping, dining, and I-75 for easy commuting. Homes with lots this size at this price point don't last. * If space matters to your family, this is your opportunity.

18. 2026-04-13
    price $305,000 1600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1600 chars)

    0.43-Acre Lot — Nearly Twice the Space of Neighboring Homes | Move-In Ready | New Construction. Imagine having almost double the outdoor space compared to every other new home on the street — room for a pool, a playground, a garden, or simply the privacy that most families can only dream of in this area. This is that home. Set on an exceptional 0.43-acre lot in one of Ocala's fastest-growing communities, this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,833 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space — move-in ready today, with no construction wait and closing cost assistance available. Inside, the open-concept layout connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen in a seamless flow filled with natural light — perfect for family life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar for everyday moments. The four bedrooms provide space for the whole family, with a split floor plan that gives the primary suite the privacy it deserves. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The expansive backyard offers endless possibilities: add a pool, build an outdoor kitchen, create a play area for kids, or simply enjoy the rare privacy that a lot this size provides in Marion Oaks. No tight neighbors. No compromises. Additional highlights include a 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty for added peace of mind, and a location minutes from shopping, dining, and I-75 for easy commuting. Homes with lots this size at this price point don't last. * If space matters to your family, this is your opportunity.

19. 2026-02-19
    listed $308,000 Active 1600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1600 chars)

    0.43-Acre Lot — Nearly Twice the Space of Neighboring Homes | Move-In Ready | New Construction. Imagine having almost double the outdoor space compared to every other new home on the street — room for a pool, a playground, a garden, or simply the privacy that most families can only dream of in this area. This is that home. Set on an exceptional 0.43-acre lot in one of Ocala's fastest-growing communities, this brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,833 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space — move-in ready today, with no construction wait and closing cost assistance available. Inside, the open-concept layout connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen in a seamless flow filled with natural light — perfect for family life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar for everyday moments. The four bedrooms provide space for the whole family, with a split floor plan that gives the primary suite the privacy it deserves. Outside is where this property truly stands apart. The expansive backyard offers endless possibilities: add a pool, build an outdoor kitchen, create a play area for kids, or simply enjoy the rare privacy that a lot this size provides in Marion Oaks. No tight neighbors. No compromises. Additional highlights include a 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty for added peace of mind, and a location minutes from shopping, dining, and I-75 for easy commuting. Homes with lots this size at this price point don't last. * If space matters to your family, this is your opportunity.

20. 2006-04-17
    soldstatus $70,500
21. 2005-07-22
    soldstatus $38,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,500/yr (+$125/mo · 158.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$6,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+664.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $308,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2005-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $38,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $948 · +169.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.