Is 10814 Minita Crk in Marion, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.3% cap rate and $-131/mo modeled cash flow at a $151,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 10814 Minita Crk?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,290/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 45.01

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.6/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
1% rule +3.5/10.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$151,999

10814 Minita Crk · Marion, TX 78124

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,049 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $145/sqft · 39% below area Est $250k · 39% under $100/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Hazel - This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
En-suite bathroom
Open-concept layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (12.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (15.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $129k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 535 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,039 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.85% ✗
Cap rate: 5.26%
Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
DSCR: 0.84
GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $250,233
List price: $151,999
Delta: -39.26%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
435 White Heron Way	0.77mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+15%)	3mo	$243,190	$202	38
215 E Schulz St	1.46mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	30mo	$165,000	$165	33
105 Twin Swan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+15%)	24mo	$259,480	$216	31
1115 Falcon Crst	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+15%)	23mo	$259,130	$215	25
216 S Live Oak	1.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (+16%)	13mo	$199,950	$164	20
266 E Huebinger St	1.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-18%)	34mo	$235,000	$273	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.4%
Equity multiple: 0.23×
Total profit: $-32,894
Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

IRR: -16.4%
Equity multiple: 0.08×
Total profit: $-39,060
Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active
Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $240,995 ($200/sqft)
Median days on market: 265 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +19.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

Active inventory: 535
Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,290 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$797
Tax est. 1.5%: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
Insurance: −$63
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,456

Max offer price $133,040

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-79	+0% $-131	+5% $-184	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-182	+0% $-131	+5% $-80	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-54	-0.5pp $-92	base $-131	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $38,000
Closing costs: $4,560
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	21d	1	1.31mi
217 E Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$850	$0.92	9d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Subdivision: Espada
HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $300 quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450Community amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garage
Utilities: Gas service: CPSElectric service: CPSWater: SAWSSewer: SAWSGarbage service: Frontier
Home design: New construction by Lennar
Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Siding and cement fiber exteriorCommunity poolPark/playground

Interior

Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasher
Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 9 x 10Bedroom 3: 9 x 10Master bedroom dimensions: 9 x 13
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor planOne living areaUtility room insideWalk-in closetsAll bedrooms downstairs
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room / laundry on lower level

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $151,999 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $151,999 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $151,999 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $151,999 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $151,999 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $151,999 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $151,999 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $151,999 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $151,999 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $151,999 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $151,999 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $151,999 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $151,999 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $151,999 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $151,999 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-18

statusdays on market $151,999 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $151,999 Price Change 67 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $151,999 Price Change 66 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $151,999 Price Change 65 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $151,999 Price Change 64 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $151,999 Price Change 63 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $151,999 Price Change 62 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $151,999 Price Change 61 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $151,999 Price Change 60 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $151,999 Price Change 59 DOM
2026-07-07

pricestatus $151,999 Price Change 57 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $150,999 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $150,999 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $150,999 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $150,999 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $150,999 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $150,999 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $150,999 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $150,999 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $150,999 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $150,999 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-26

statusdays on market $150,999 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $150,999 Price Change 44 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $150,999 Price Change 42 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $150,999 Price Change 41 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $150,999 Price Change 38 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $150,999 Price Change 37 DOM
2026-06-16

pricestatusdays on market $150,999 Price Change 36 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $155,999 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-13

statusdays on market $155,999 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $155,999 Price Change 32 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $155,999 Price Change 29 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $155,999 Price Change 28 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $155,999 Price Change 27 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $155,999 Price Change 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $15,485
− Mortgage interest: −$8,514
− Property taxes: −$2,280
− Insurance: −$760
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
− Management: −$1,239
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$4,422
Taxable loss: −$4,169

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,001
After-tax cash flow: $-572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout with new construction, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Marion ISD
NCES district ID: 4829100
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $58,465
Composite: 39.86/100
National rank: #3867
State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

Score: 66/100
State rank: #614
US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 6,907
Household income: $82,534
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 196,854 people
By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
Current HPI: 189.5796
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-06-16 Price Changed $150,999 LERA
2026-06-03 Price Changed $155,999 LERA
2026-05-26 Price Changed $156,999 LERA
2026-05-21 Price Changed $176,999 LERA
2026-05-11 Listed $172,999 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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