5922 Shale Cv · San Antonio, TX 78222

$219,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2025 5,662 sqft lot $184/sqft · 12% below area Est $249k · 12% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Alamo is a charming one-story home featured at Blue Ridge Ranch in San Antonio, TX. Featuring 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1190 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Alamo floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Quality cabinets
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• QUALITY CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,495 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,125
• List price: $219,500
• Delta: -11.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5931 Shale Cv	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,190 (0%)	4mo	$244,000	$205	96
5926 Shale Cv	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (+14%)	3mo	$238,500	$175	69
5935 Shale Cv	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (+14%)	6mo	$259,500	$191	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-46,559
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-47,732
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78222

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,292/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,961

Max offer price $189,126

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5418 Tourmaline Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,575	$1.13	4d	1	0.60mi
5231 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,690	$1.19	43d	1	0.77mi
5227 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	23d	1	0.78mi
5231 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	10d	1	0.81mi
5203 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,615	$1.27	23d	1	0.82mi
5215 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	4d	1	0.83mi
5207 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	43d	1	0.84mi
5214 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,690	$1.19	23d	1	0.84mi
5119 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,615	$1.27	23d	1	0.85mi
5115 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,550	$1.25	17d	1	0.88mi
5102 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,615	$1.27	23d	1	0.88mi
5107 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,575	$1.11	23d	1	0.89mi
5114 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,690	$1.19	23d	1	0.89mi
5019 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,500	$1.18	23d	1	0.90mi
5011 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	43d	1	0.91mi
4734 Shale Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,725	$1.38	23d	1	1.15mi
4226 Toledo Mist San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	944	$1,600	$1.69	23d	1	1.15mi
3535 Honey Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,400	$0.97	16d	1	1.30mi
3510 Bottomless Lk San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,150	$1.08	43d	1	1.32mi
7246 Meadow Acres San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,470	$1.01	23d	1	1.37mi
6023 Lake Victoria St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,575	$1.15	12d	1	1.37mi
6230 Lake Victoria St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,465	$1.22	2d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,500 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,500 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,500 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,500 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,500 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,500 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,500 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $219,500 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 47 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,500 Price Change 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $220,000 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Alamo is a charming one-story home featured at Blue Ridge Ranch in San Antonio, TX. Featuring 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1190 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Alamo floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

15. 2026-04-15
    listed $235,000 New 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Alamo is a charming one-story home featured at Blue Ridge Ranch in San Antonio, TX. Featuring 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1190 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Alamo floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

16. 2026-03-10
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-06
    historical
18. 2026-02-01
    price $225,500
19. 2026-01-28
    listed $246,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$3,292
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$6,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,476
• Household income: $66,362
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 26% White 19% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.18%
• Current HPI: 278.8429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2026-04-15 Listed $235,000 LERA
• 2026-03-10 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $225,500 LERA
• 2026-01-28 Listed $246,500 LERA