22 Sherman Ave · Bethpage, NY 11714

$249,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,659 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1971 10,400 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $249k).
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 3.2% in Bethpage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#131 in NY, #2,116 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Bethpage Union Free School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #45 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy Middle School (math 72% / reading 81%, grade A, #47 of 729 statewide, top 7%, 717 students, 24% FRL); Bethpage Senior High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #13 of 1,100 statewide, top 2%, 932 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 9% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.09%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $111,773
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $293,428
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11714

• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,092
• Net cashflow: $2,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
278 N 4th St Bethpage, NY	5.0	2.0	1872	$5,200	$2.78	1d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2023-07-18
   status Pending
2. 2023-07-07
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2021-07-11
   price $648,000
4. 2021-07-02
   status Active
5. 2021-07-02
   historical
6. 2021-05-22
   status Pending
7. 2021-04-11
   price $651,000
8. 2021-02-10
   price $652,000
9. 2021-02-03
   price $655,000
10. 2021-01-17
    price $657,000
11. 2021-01-06
    price $658,000
12. 2020-12-28
    price $659,000
13. 2020-12-02
    price $662,000
14. 2020-10-09
    price $663,000
15. 2020-10-05
    price $664,000
16. 2020-08-22
    price $668,000
17. 2020-08-07
    price $678,000
18. 2020-07-31
    listed $688,000 Active
19. 2020-07-27
    historical
20. 2020-07-06
    price $671,000
21. 2020-06-21
    price $672,000
22. 2020-03-01
    price $673,000
23. 2020-02-20
    price $674,000
24. 2020-02-05
    price $675,000
25. 2019-10-31
    listed $748,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,992
• − Management: −$4,992
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $26,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,299
• After-tax cash flow: $22,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethpage Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3604740
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $98,909
• Composite: 71.51/100
• National rank: #224
• State rank: #45 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bethpage

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #2116

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethpage, NY
• City population: 22,475
• Population (ZIP): 22,475

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Indo-European 13% Spanish 6% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -803.80%
• Current HPI: 311.8915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-66.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2023-07-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-07 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-11 Price Changed $648,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-11 Price Changed $651,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-10 Price Changed $652,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-03 Price Changed $655,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-17 Price Changed $657,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-06 Price Changed $658,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-28 Price Changed $659,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-02 Price Changed $662,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-09 Price Changed $663,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-05 Price Changed $664,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-22 Price Changed $668,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Price Changed $678,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-31 Listed $688,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-06 Price Changed $671,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-21 Price Changed $672,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-01 Price Changed $673,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-20 Price Changed $674,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-05 Price Changed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-31 Listed $748,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $15,418 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.