103 Lollipop Ln · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$274,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1986 0.33 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come Escape to This Beautiful A-Frame Chalet! Only 90 Minutes From NYC, Serenity Awaits You! Beautiful Private Stream Right in Your Backyard. New Kitchen Featuring Genuine Carrara Marble Countertops, Marble Backsplash, Stainless Steel WiFi Appliances. New Beautiful Bathrooms With Frameless Shower Doors and Marble Tile. Also, New Lvp Flooring, Washer/Dryer, Fireplace, Paint, Carpet Plus More! Huge Private Master Ensuite With Double Closets and Spectacular Views of Your Private Stream! This Home Features an Open Floor Plan, Balcony, Soaring Ceilings, Unfinished Basement, and a Wrap-Around Deck Ready for Your Next Barbeque! Property Surrounded by Wooded Lots, the Community Has 7 Lakes, 2 Outdoor Pools, 1 Indoor Pool, a Clubhouse, and More! This Home Won't Last! Tons of New Features In Home!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Nearby trails
• Private setting

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• ACCESS TO 7 LAKES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NEARBY STREAMS
• AMENITY-FILLED COMMUNITY
• NEARBY TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: 150 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story house; Wood siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Above-grade finished living area reported
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Asphalt and fiberglass roofing; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Deck; Gas grill

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (two bedrooms); Second-floor bedroom (one large bedroom)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings and vaulted ceiling(s); Dining area; High ceilings; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Delaware Valley SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,441 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $123,579
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $384,624
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,733/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,455

Max offer price $202,252

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-256	-5% $-333	+0% $-411	+5% $-489	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-564	-5% $-488	+0% $-411	+5% $-335	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-341	base $-411	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: internetpool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $274,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,733 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,538 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$805/yr (+$67/mo · 29.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$2,733
• − Insurance: −$2,041
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$9,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+2649.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $274,900 GLVRMLS
• 2022-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-20 Sold (MLS) $240,000 PWMLS
• 2022-06-20 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $249,000 PWMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $249,000 PWMLS
• 1986-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,733 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.